The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
Kampala, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | Uganda’s headline inflation for the 2024/25 financial year averaged 3.4%, reflecting moderate price growth amid continued pressure from food and core service costs. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) attributes the rise to persistent increases in food prices and a steady uptick in service-related expenses.
The financial year closed with headline inflation at 3.9% in June 2025, slightly above the 3.8% recorded in May. “The year’s average of 3.4% was shaped by persistent increases in food crop prices, a steady climb in core inflation, and mild price shifts in energy, fuel, and utility items,” said Samuel Echoku of UBOS.
The food crop and related items category recorded the highest pressure, with annual inflation at 4.7% in June, up from 4.3% in May. Prices of essential foodstuffs rose sharply throughout the year. Dry beans inflation rose to 12.1% in June, up from 9.2% in May. Cooking bananas (matoke) jumped to 37.7%, from 29.8% the previous month. Passion fruits reversed a deflationary trend, rising to 5.3% in June from -2.1% in May. Irish potatoes remained deflationary, though at a milder rate of -0.6%, compared to -5.5% in May.
These persistent increases made food inflation a consistent driver of overall price growth during the fiscal year. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 4.2% in both May and June 2025. However, service-related costs within the category showed notable movement.
Outpatient care services rose sharply to 7.9% in June from 4.5% in May. Restaurants and accommodation also saw a slight increase, climbing to 4.7% from 4.6%. Other goods within the core category experienced marginal declines, falling to 3.7% in June from 3.8% in May. Despite this, several staple items recorded significant annual increases. Sugar rose by 3.9% in June, up from a decline of 4.0% in May. Rice prices increased to 7.6% from 3.7%, while maize flour jumped by 12.6% from 7.4%.
Inflation for Energy, Fuel, and Utilities (EFU) stayed negative for much of the year, closing at -0.2% in June, up slightly from -0.9% in May. Firewood inflation slowed to 7.8% from 8.4%, while charcoal prices rose to 4.6% from 2.6%. Petroleum products continued to register price declines. Petrol decreased by -6.6%, diesel by -4.7%, and liquefied gas by -4.9% in June.
On a monthly basis, EFU inflation rose by 0.8% in June, driven by solid fuel price increases. Charcoal rose by 2.1%, firewood by 1.9%, and both petrol and diesel saw modest increases. Uganda’s monthly headline inflation fell sharply to 0.1% in June, down from 0.5% in May. This was mainly due to a steep drop in food crop inflation, which declined by -2.2% after rising by 0.6% in May.
Key drivers of this monthly food price deflation included cooking bananas, which dropped by -9.3% in June after rising by 9.6% in May. Fresh beans fell by -24.3% from a previous increase of 15.3%. Mangoes dropped by -12.8% compared to 16.2% growth in May. Cabbage fell by -13.9% from -7.4%, while tomatoes declined by -4.2% from -9.3%.
In contrast, monthly core inflation rose by 0.3% in June, mostly due to rising service prices. According to UBOS’s COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose) analysis, the divisions contributing most to the 3.9% annual inflation rate in June included housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which rose to 2.9% from 2.4%. Recreation, sport, and culture increased to 2.8% from 1.9%. Information and communication rose to 1.7% from 1.2%, while transport edged up to 2.9% from 2.7%.
Health services rose to 4.6% from 4.4%, and restaurants and accommodation services climbed to 4.7% from 4.6%. Meanwhile, some categories saw either slower inflation or outright declines. Education services fell to 6.3% from 6.7%. Furnishings and household equipment dropped to 1.8% from 2.7%, while personal care and miscellaneous goods slipped to 1.3% from 1.7%.
Despite sector-specific volatility, the FY2024/25 average inflation rate of 3.4% remained within the Bank of Uganda’s target range, indicating macroeconomic stability. However, risks remain. Weather-related disruptions, food supply chain bottlenecks, and persistent increases in service prices could affect future inflation trends. As Uganda enters FY2025/26, policymakers are expected to closely monitor these developments, especially amid ongoing economic recovery and uncertainty in global fuel markets.
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