10,000 new HIV infections could occur over the next 5 years due to PrEP money cuts

Kampala, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | HIV incidence and related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa could significantly increase following the suspension of funding for Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) under the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), a new modelling study warns. The pre-print study, led by Dr. Jack Stone, Associate Professor in Infectious Disease Mathematical Modelling at the University of Bristol, was presented during a press conference held ahead of the 13th International AIDS Society (IAS) Conference on HIV Science taking place in Kigali, Rwanda.

PrEP—an oral medication taken by HIV-negative individuals to prevent infection—was funded by PEPFAR and had reached nearly 700,000 people across 28 sub-Saharan African countries by the end of 2024. However, that support was paused in January 2025. According to the study, the funding halt could lead to approximately 6,671 additional HIV acquisitions within a year and 3,617 more over the subsequent five years. Alarmingly, projections show that more than 2,900 of the additional infections could occur among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men, while more than 2,000 could be among female sex workers.

The research also suggests that increases in HIV acquisition will exceed 5 percent among key populations in several countries. These include men who have sex with men in eight countries, people who inject drugs in two countries, transgender women in five countries, and female sex workers in six countries. “Ceasing PEPFAR’s funding for PrEP in sub-Saharan Africa will remove approximately 700,000 individuals from using oral PrEP. If this continued for one year, then 10,000 additional infections could occur over the next five years, with many of these infections being among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men and female sex workers,” said Dr. Jack Stone. “It is crucial that funding is found to continue and expand PrEP services in sub-Saharan Africa.”

Commenting on these findings and the broader implications, Prof. Kenneth Ngure, President-Elect of the International AIDS Society (IAS), noted that the study illustrates the real-world consequences of abrupt funding cuts. “This study and others to be discussed at the conference offer real-world insights into how sudden funding cuts are impacting vulnerable populations and the impact they could cause in the future,” he said. Prof. Ngure added that the cuts have been deeply felt across the African continent—not just by the millions of people depending on HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services—but also by the researchers and healthcare professionals working to end the pandemic. He noted that many clinical trials now face the risk of stalling due to the financial uncertainty.

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