Buganda next after NRM fire in Busoga primaries

Violence to hit high in Parliamentary elections

COVER STORY | JOSEPH WERE | A pattern of campaign violence, candidate harassment, and voter bribery that has emerged during the just concluded NRM primaries will likely spill into the 2026 general elections. That is the view of many expert election observers and analysts.

Over 2000 candidates battled in the July 17 NRM primaries for the chance to carry the flag of the ruling party for 519 direct election seats, including 353 open constituency seats and 146 ring-fenced district women seats.

The high number of contestants for the few seats mean that in whatever outcome, 75% of contestants would lose. That is partly what makes the contest for the MP seat a high stakes gamble.

Stakes go even higher in the NRM primaries because the winner is most likely to also win in the general election. This is mainly because, although parliament has 557 MP slots, the NRM always takes over 70% of the seats. The NRM also dominates another group, the so-called independents who occupy about 15% of seats.

The NRM tickets is also a hot ticket because there is a high turnover of MPs in every election cycle, with about 40% of incumbents being kicked out by voters.

But, finally, money is what makes the fight over parliamentary seats a do-or-die affair. Ugandan MPs are the fourth best paid legislators on the African continent after South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya which are far bigger economies.

The average monthly salary in South Africa is $2,026, according to Global Payroll Association (GPA) figures. Kenya is $1,291, Nigeria$814, Uganda $738. Ugandan MPs earn averagely about $11,200 per month. That means an average worker in Uganda requires 15 months to earn what an MP earns in one month.

Upon election, an MP gets a once a term Shs200 million car allowance, Shs 6.1 million monthly salary, monthly fuel allowance between Shs10 and 30 million, town-running allowance of Shs2 million, monthly housing allowance of Shs 6.5 million, and constituency allowance of Shs17 million. That’s an average earning of Shs40 million per month. Many MPs earn more from other miscellaneous allowances and per diem.

Although MPs are among the highest paid persons in Uganda, the qualifications for the job are very low. To be an MP requires only a minimum A-level certificate or its equivalent. Yet MPs earn way higher than most top executive positions in Uganda that require a university degree or two, plus various diplomas. That is why many Ugandans fight hard to become an MP. That is why every successive election cycle sees higher and increasing campaign violence, candidate harassment, and voter bribery.

A major development likely to be witnessed in the 2026 general elections will be the shift of the violence, candidate harassment, and voter bribery from regions where it was most rampant peaceful in the NRM primaries to regions that have been relatively peaceful in the NRM primaries.

This is mainly because the electoral vices occur mainly in high stakes races and will likely shift from areas where NRM is strong to areas where NRM is weak.

Violence high in NRM strongholds

The NRM is strong all over the country but it has sure wins in most of western Uganda. These areas witnessed some of the worst violence in the primaries. Isingiro, Ntungamo, Mubende, Ssembabule, Lwengo became hotspots.

Lwemiyaga in Ssembabule district had perhaps the hottest race of the primaries as long-time area MP Theodore Ssekikuubo faced off with NRM debutant Brig. Gen. (Rtd) Emmanuel Rwashande. The campaign was marked by fist fights, whip clashes, and full-blown gun fights. When the dust-settled on July 17, Rwashande was declared winner and as, one newspaper reported, he is the MP designate for the area. But that is if the loser, Ssekikuubo, does not run as an independent and possibly defeat him. Ssekikuubo has already petitioned the NRM Elections Tribunal alleging his vote was stolen in a “military operation”. But Ssekikubo’s petition is likely to fail because his rival, Gen. Rwashande, has gained favour with high-ups in the NRM party by branding himself as a “liberator” – the man who has rescued Lwemiyaga from the opposition.

If Ssekikubo decides to run as an independent, he will join a long list of aggrieved NRM primary losers who will most likely run as independents. According to reports, about 140 losers of NRM primaries defied party rules and ran as independents.

Meanwhile, in neighbouring Mawogola North, the NRM primaries were relatively peaceful and former Minister of Trade Amelia Kyambadde easily kept the NRM ticket.

In an ironical twist, however, Lwemiyaga which witnessed high incidences of violence in the primaries is likely to have more peaceful 2026 elections than Mawokota North which was peaceful.

Part of the reason is that Kyambadde easily won because she did not have serious competition within NRM. Her only rival was, Sam Akol, who withdrew from the race at the last minute. Still, Akol claimed harassment by the military but this is likely to intensify when Kyambadde faces off with an opposition candidate, Hillary Kiyaga aka Hilderman of NUP.

The same scenario played out in Mbale. The real contestation was in Mbale North City Division where two Resident District Commissioners, Hudu Hussein and Umar Nangoli battled Isma Mukakandi. Umar Nangoli won but his tussle with the others was cordial. That will most likely not be the case when Nangoli takes on opposition candidates. In 2021 there was a slew of independent candidates and one from FDC and another from the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT).

It was the same cordial race in Mbale Municipality seat where NRM Iron-lady Lydia Wanyoto easily defeated Sarah Wasagali Kanaabi and Ritah Namuwenge. But matters are likely to be different when Wanyoto battles her perennial nemesis, Nakayenze Connie Galiwango. Although she is NRM-leaning, Connie Galiwango always contests as an independent citing lack of trust in the NRM primaries. In 2021, Wanyoto challenged her win in court and lost. If, as in the past, their clash results in incidents of violence, it will confirm what many fear; increased violence in 2026.

More violence expected in 2026

“The previous two presidential election cycles both saw large demonstrations and were marred by violence,” the authors note, “Given the current dynamics, there is strong reason to believe that the repression and violence that transpired during the 2021 campaign and election may recur in 2026 or be worse.”

That message is contained in a report by the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published in October 2024 that warned that Uganda is at risk of mass atrocities if warning signs are ignored or the powers that be wait until a crisis emerges.

The authors pointed at triggers including clashes between state security forces (police and military) and political opposition, protesters, and youth that are common in Uganda, especially around elections.

The authors pointed out that since its independence, Uganda has experienced violent political transitions and mass atrocities.

They point at growing public frustration with President Museveni’s rule in the run-up to the presidential elections. They point at growing disputes over corruption, inadequate public services, and poor management of land and natural resources that have also contributed to widespread frustration across communities and how these disputes are often perceived along identity lines.

They add that the advanced age of President Museveni who will be 82 years old in 2026, together with other factors are creating a sense that a transition must be coming.

“Ugandans are increasingly consumed with questions about when and how Museveni will leave office and who will lead Uganda in his wake,” the authors say.

“The uncertainty around what could be the country’s first political transition in nearly four decades is breeding division and fears about potential violence.

They point at three scenarios representing how an outbreak of widespread violence could plausibly occur in Uganda. In Scenario A, the state would commit mass atrocities against civilians protesting governmental attacks or use of force against the political opposition and their perceived supporters.

In Scenario B, a perceived illegal political transition by the president or ruling party would trigger political instability and widespread demonstrations. Such a transition would also produce a struggle between the different power centers within the government (e.g., political parties, military). The state would commit mass atrocities against civilians perceived to oppose the transition. In Scenario C, a clash between non-state armed groups and the state would trigger large-scale violence against civilians perceived to support these non-state groups.

“It is crucial to analyze how mass atrocities could occur even in contexts like Uganda, where they may not seem likely,” said Naomi Kikoler, Director of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide.

Early indications of violence

Already, indications of likely violence in 2026 could be seen in the just concluded NRM primaries. During the NRM primaries, constituencies that witnessed the worst elections were in the general eastern Uganda districts of Busoga region, including Kamuli, Jinja, Iganga, and Buwenge. There were also skirmishes in Mbale and surrounding areas of Ikiiki and Kalaki, and Lwemiyaga in Ssembabule and Lwengo in Mubende.

Reports indicated that on the eve of the NRM primaries in Kamuli, police shot dead one Sowed Egumbye; the husband of the District Woman MP aspirant, Sarah Auma. The incident took place in Buzaya County amidst allegations of machete wielding gangs attacking the home of the area MP, Martin Muzaale who is a close ally of the incumbent Kamuli District Woman MP, Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Alitwala Kadaga. As far back as 2024, Kadaga and Muzaale have been crying out in fear of gangs allegedly sponsored by their opponents to cause violence against them.

Kadaga’s challenger, Sarah Auma is said to be allied to former Minister of State for Urban Planning, Isaac Musumba, who Muzaale defeated in the 2020 NRM primaries on his way to becoming area MP. The 2025 NRM primary race for the Buzaya seat was once again between Muzaale and Musumba.

The other hot race in Busoga region was in Butembe, where the incumbent MP; David Livingstone Zijjan was not running in the area. Zijjan, an NRM-leaning MP ran as an Independent in 2021 after losing the NRM primaries to Jacob Kabondo but defeating him in the general election.

Zijjan’s departure once again flung the NRM flag-bearer race open and Charles Sande Kabule and Shaban Okumu led the pack of those in the ring. As violence and intimidation between their camps rose, they accused each other of sponsoring violence brigades called E’gaali. The E’gaali gangs reportedly wield machetes, sticks, and stones and clobber anyone considered a supporter of the opposing camp. Butembe is a battle ground during every primary because it has since the inception of multiparty politics in 1996 been an NRM stronghold. It was the constituency of NRM-stalwart Daudi Migereko.

In neighbouring Mayuge district, a policeman was reportedly badly injured when he was hit in the head with a stone.

Parliamentary constituencies in these areas are hot tickets because these are NRM strongholds and whoever wins the primaries will most likely emerge victorious in 2026.

The Busoga region, for example, has 41 MP slots. Of these, the opposition won only 4 constituencies in the 2021 election. This despite the leading opposition presidential candidate in that election, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine trouncing eventually national winner, President Yoweri Museveni in the region. Kyagulanyi garnered 437,059 votes in Busoga region to defeat Museveni who got 404,802. Looking at the difference of 32,000 votes in a region of 11 districts, the NRM 2026 election strategists will most likely consider that a battleground region at the national level but NRM stronghold at the MP, local level.

As the strategists lay plans to win it, they will assume 97% of MP slots will be won by the winners of the NRM primaries. Still, as the NRM primaries have shown, the winning tactics favoured by ruling party apparatchiks are violence, candidate harassment, and voter bribery. So Busoga will likely witness aspects of this, but it will be limited in scope. The real battles will have been settled in the NRM primaries.

That possibly explains why there was limited violence in constituencies that in 2021 voted for opposition MPs. These include Jinja City North constituency won in 2021 by David Aga Isa of FDC, Jinja South West won by Dr Timothy Batuwa (FDC), and Bugiri Municipality won by Asuman Basalirwa (JEEMA).

Other areas where general elections are usually violent but NRM primaries were relatively peaceful are Mbale.

Come 2026, these will, however, become the battlegrounds between NRM candidates and the opposition. The violence, candidate harassment, and voter bribery is likely to be high as the NRM tries to reclaim these constituencies. The tension will be heightened by the sense that, since winning these constituencies, the oppositions candidates have become weaker not stronger. This sense applies to the opposition winner of the Jinja City Woman MP slot, Manjeri Kyebakutika of NUP.

2026 violence in Buganda

Buganda region is likely to be different. As always, the area will be a battleground for NRM since President Museveni garnered just 36% of the vote in the 2021 presidential race to the 63% for Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine.

The NRM primaries were largely peaceful since, as already seen, winning the primaries was not a guarantee for winning the seat in the general election. In fact some of the winners in the primaries have lost before to the opposition candidates they will be facing. The NRM winners who have lost before in the Kampala area include Fred Ruhindi, Faridah Nambi, Singh Parminder Marwaha Katongole. Elsewhere they include, current and former ministers Amelia Kyambadde, Godfrey Kiwanda, Vincent Ssempija, Ruth Nankabirwa, Chrysostom Muyingo, Edward Ssekandi, Judith Nabakooba,Ronald Kibuule, Haruna Kasolo and more.

They all lost to opposition challengers in the 2021 elections in the so-called “NUP wave”. Since that loss, however, President Museveni has shown that he is determined to reverse those losses in 2026. The most visible sign of this was how Museveni, instead of kicking out losers as he had always done, opted to give them even higher visibility positions with more financial clout. Godfrey Kiwanda, Ruth Nankabirwa, Judith Nabakooba and other have all benefited from this strategy.

The next phase in 2026 will be to ensure that they win their constituency races. And, as the Kawempe North election showed, increased violence, candidate intimidation and voter bribery are part of the arsenal they will deploy. And, as the Simon-Skjodt Center report says, “While violence may be instigated by actors on either side, Ugandan security forces have greater capacity to target civilians on a larger scale”