A delicate truce in Uganda-Rwanda relations

Calm Museveni

Throughout the strained relations between the two countries, President Museveni has taken a calm approach on the Rwanda issue and so are his ministers.

On the other hand, Kagame has been all guns blazing drumming up the Uganda-Rwanda fallout at every opportunity. Ministers in the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) government of Kagame are also unusually vocal on the issue- meaning that they got the blessing of the president.

Just a few hours after the summit, the rabble rousing Rwandan minister of state for the East African Community, Olivier Nduhungirehe, was already at it, sending out a Trump-like tweet. “The Gatuna Communiqué is another milestone towards resolving the #Uganda-#Rwanda crisis. However, before the ink was dry, some have started throwing it under the bus. They underestimate the resilience of the Rwandan people and their ability to always overcome adversity.”

However, Nduhungirehe was quickly rebuked by Ugandans on twitter and some Rwandans for being undiplomatic about such a painstaking process. Part of those who replied the Rwandan minster include Adonia Ayebare, Uganda’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations.

Ayebare is currently President Museveni’s special envoy to Kagame and previously served as Ugandan ambassador to Rwanda.

Many citizens of the two countries, however, continue to look at it as a quarrel between the two former comrades. The relations of the citizens on the other hand continue unhindered with the many blood relations shared across the border.

Bloody history

Paul Kagame was one of the original fighters of the National Resistance Army (NRA) recruited by Museveni to take up arms against the Milton Obote government in the successful guerilla war from 1981-1986.

Four years later, the Ugandan government led by Museveni was a rear base for Kagame as he led Rwandan exiles sheltered in Uganda in a similar war against the Rwandan government of Juvenile Habyarimana.

Kagame’s forces, the Rwanda Patriotic Army (RPA), captured power in 1994 but it marked the start of a fallout with the Ugandan government. The clashes of the Rwandan and Ugandan armies in DRC in what became known as the two Congo wars was the epitome of this brotherly feud.

The two armies planned the invasion of Congo in 1996, threw out the ageing dictator Sese Seko Mobutu, installed Joseph Kabila and threw him out. The two armies turned Congo into an arena to air their quarrels and a testing ground for their artillery. The cycle of violence was reborn when the M23 was founded in 2011.

Strangely, Tshisekedi the easy going president of DRC, is now a part of the mediation team between two revolutionary figures that the international community partly holds responsible for the untold death destruction of his country.

Observers have likened the feud between Museveni and Kagame as one between two jealous neighbours who cannot stand each other every passing day.

However these are presidents who controls armies personally and their feud has resulted in the killing of innocent civilians who have lost their lives while crossing the Rwandan border into Uganda.

Commentators  on the  issue feel that Museveni is appearing weak in the negotiations while others think that is his true strategy- the long game. Some observers say, Museveni’s plan is to wear the Rwandans out and eventually expose their true interest.

“At the end of it all, he’ll be seen to have done the most compromising,” one Ugandan commented on Twitter on the strategy of the Ugandan leader.

Ibrahim Semujju, the Kira Municipality MP and Opposition Chief Whip in Parliament, told The Independent that as negotiations go on without an end in sight, the general consensus is that the relations between Museveni and Kagame may never be fully repaired.

“The relationship between Museveni and Kagame broke down. It will be very difficult to have it rebuilt because of the mutual suspicion that has gone out of hand,” he says.

“They know each other very well; they collect intelligence on each other. They have knowledge on what the other is planning.”

Semujju says there can only be hope for temporary relief once borders are re-opened but not for the two men. “We may see them more at summits because they have an international community to cater to.” He says regardless of what happens in the future, the two men will never be comfortable around each other.”

Just hours after meeting with Kagame, Museveni addressed the crowd in Kabale district near the border saying closure of the border was a result of internal disagreements in Rwanda’s ruling party, RPF.

Museveni said those who disagreed with the RPF leadership took refuge in South Africa. The President said the accusation that Uganda is hosting some of the individuals who fell out with Kagame is false.

“My sympathies go out to the citizens of Uganda and Rwanda that have been affected by the closure of the Katuna border,” Museveni told Kabale residents.