The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
In 2023 alone, the WTO estimates that the global trade in these AI-enabling products reached a staggering $2.3 trillion
TECHNOLOGY | AGENCIES | AI could boost global trade by almost 40% by 2040, according to a new report from the World Trade Organization, though the benefits can only be shared if governments close digital divides, invest in upskilling workforces, and maintain a stable trading environment.
The WTO’s 2025 World Trade Report suggests that AI could drive major gains, with global trade forecast to grow by 34–37% depending on how quickly low-, middle-, and high-income economies close the gap in policy and technological development, and global GDP seeing a 12-13% increase.
According to the WTO, trade could, in turn, play a pivotal role in unlocking inclusive, AI-driven growth by giving economies access to the essential building blocks of artificial intelligence, including raw materials and semiconductors
In 2023 alone, the WTO estimates that the global trade in these AI-enabling products reached a staggering $2.3 trillion (£1.68tn).
The study claims that if low- and middle-income economies halve their digital infrastructure gap with higher-income countries and adopt AI more widely, their incomes could rise by as much as 15%.
“With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO director-general.
“And with the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort.”
The WTO report also underscores the importance of open and predictable trade policies, highlighting a sharp rise in restrictions on AI-related goods, going from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024, largely driven by high- and upper-middle-income countries.
Meanwhile, access to these critical goods remains uneven, with bound tariffs reaching as high as 45% in some low-income economies.
The situation is being exacerbated by profound shifts in trade policy around the world, marked by rising protectionist measures, escalating tariffs and stricter regulatory enforcement, with Okonjo-Iweala saying the global trading system is in the midst of the ‘worst disruptions’ in eighty years.
“Yet amid the risks to trade, growth and development prospects, there are bright spots – and one of them is the potential of artificial intelligence,” added the director-general.
The report emphasises the role of the WTO in helping to deliver inclusive access to AI and its benefits, with the organisation providing a forum for members to discuss AI-related trade measures.
So far, eighty specific trade concerns raised at the WTO have focused on AI, while members have taken part in dedicated discussions on how the technology can promote inclusive trade.
Meanwhile, the report adds that additional commitments from members, such as through broader participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, could make AI more inclusive and affordable.
