The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
He says after the 2016 general elections, the opposition seems to have been derailed from its earlier mode.
In February, members of the opposition were involved in sharp disagreements as Uganda fielded candidates for the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) based in Arusha, Tanzania. FDC was wrecked by an internal party dispute and subsequently missed out on an EALA post, some of its members like Opposition Chief Whip in Parliament Ibrahim Semujju Nganda accused DP and UPC of being in bed with Museveni to undermine FDC, the largest opposition party.
Just around the same time, Museveni was nibbling away at DP. Muhammad Baswari Kezaala, the party’s national chairman had just accepted a diplomatic posting and Florence Nakiwala Kiyingi who stood for Kampala Woman MP on the DP ticket in the 2016 elections had taken up a cabinet position the same year
“Compare that with what has been happening with the recent by-elections where the opposition have been fielding multiple candidates but most importantly have been scattered with each party working on its own,” he adds, In his view, the opposition should use its small numbers to disrupt NRM.
“Opposition and progressive-NRM MPs are very few but can have the capacity to cause a standoff in parliament and to cause Museveni enough headache. Don’t forget that the rebel MPs in the ninth parliament were less than ten (although the most vocal were about four), but working with the opposition they created lots of problems for Museveni,” Khisa told The Independent.
And indeed the Supreme Court backed the rebel MPs in a ruling in 2015 stating that it was not automatic for the MPs to lose their seats after they had fallen out with their party. This was after the Constitutional Court ruled to throw them out of parliament.
Moses Khisa, however, puts a caveat on the actions of the opposition MPs in parliament. “Museveni has been very successful in scattering even a small opposition in parliament using both carrots and sticks and the current fierce opposition on the age limit machinations may fizzle precisely at the hands of coercive threats, money, and blackmail,” he says.
“But it will also depend on how much effort comes into play from outside parliament,” he adds, “MPs, however united, will not achieve much if there is no pressure from the general public, the organised civil society, and an activist media. The struggle against Museveni cannot be won exclusively from parliament. Impossible.”
Butambala County MP Muwanga Kivumbi, and a member of the DP, agrees that the Bill has united the opposition uniquely but is also guarded about it. “I hope the unity holds. It is the beginning of a long and protracted fight because the continued stay of Museveni threatens other parties,” he told The Independent.
Untamed ambitions
Kivumbi says it is likely the opposition is strongly together this time partly because the fight does not involve one particular individual. “Ambitions are inherently checked. It is not like there is someone gunning for President or MP. There is no clear cut beneficiary at an individual level. Normally what divides the opposition is ambition,” he says.
Kivumbi cites The Democratic Alliance (TDA), an opposition coalition formed in 2015 to take on Museveni in the 2016 elections and says it collapsed because of calculating politicians. “With every TDA model, there was disagreement based on who would gain and who would lose because we were looking for an individual,” the DP stalwart says.
“Here, there is no one individual in the opposition that will gain as the age limit Bill is fought, it is an example of how to tame ambitions but after that they will all go back to their camps,” he told The Independent.
He also says the fact that there is no one organising the anti-age limit campaigns means the campaign has been taken away from political parties which are filled with moles. Kivumbi who belongs to a DP faction opposed to the party president Norbert Mao added, “If you want to disorganise yourself, work with political parties”.
Winnie Kiiza, the Leader of Opposition in Parliament says it is not just the age limit bill which has united opposition but also the controversial land amendment Bill which has seen FDC, DP, UPC MPs work with NRM MPs.
“John Nambeshe, (Manjiya County MP) hosted us in Mbale at a rally meant to sensitise the masses against the Land Bill,” she said.
Kiiza insists it is not just about numbers because there are NRM MPs opposed to the Magyezi Bill like Theodore Sekikubo and Monica Amoding.
“If it were about the numbers, they would not have brought in Special Forces Command to remove a handful of MPs,” she says.
For now, the opposition parties of FDC, DP, and UPC seem to have put aside their internal fights to take on Museveni in what they have termed as a life presidency project. The fight in parliament is being led mainly by a group of young MPs who literally defended the constitution as they hurled kicks, punches and microphones at the invading SFC guards in the chambers of parliament on Sept 27.
