The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
The FDC president, Gen. Mugisha Muntu denies it but many in his party say he is not in support of Besigye’s defiance campaign. Muntu says he does not oppose defiance but, for him, building party mobilisation structures is the priority.
Tension in FDC is likely to once again reach boiling point when the party plunges into campaigns for president sometime this year. The last time an election was held in 2012, the party almost collapsed as supporters loyal to Muntu and those loyal to party Besigye proxy Nandala Mafabi, who is now its Secretary General, attacked each other.
A repeat almost played out in 2015 as the party picked a flag-bearer. Muntu has somehow always managed to edge Mafabi within the party leadership organs but he has failed to turn that success into popularity among FDC’s grassroots supports. Poll after poll has shown that these tend to support a more abrasive opposition to Museveni as articulated by Besigye and represented by Mafabi.
If Museveni has proved anything, it is that he is always on the lookout for such divisions as the slightest opportunity to eat into the opposition. Already, FDC stalwart s like Bugweri MP Abdu Katuntu, Aruu County MP Odonga Otto, and Kitgum Municipality MP Beatrice Anywar are either out of the party or are branded traitors. These could prove easy picks for Museveni who likes to throw treats to selected opposition members that leave others salivating and, therefore, more amenable to his advances. Museveni has already made a move, with the appointment into his cabinet in June last year of former FDC strongman in Kasese, Christopher Kibanzanga.
Despite the appointment of Kibanzanga, who is a prince in the traditional leadership of the Bakonzo people of the Kasese, 2016 ended with the region on a cliffhanger. Security forces acting on Museveni’s orders had attacked the palace of Rwenzururu king Omusinga Wesley Mumbere and sent him to jail on a raft of serious charges. Many lives were lost on both sides—civilians and security personnel—with some putting the death toll at over 100 people.
It is not clear why Museveni chose to bring out the big guns against one of the least consequential traditional leaders in the country. One view is that it was merely a clash of egos but that does not explain the array of charges that have now been leveled against Mumbere. But neither do those charges signify that Museveni, in fact intends to let Mumbere rot in jail. So, while it is not obvious what his game plan is on Kasese, it is clear that it is one area that will continue to give Museveni headache in 2017.
And if Museveni thought setting the king’s palace on fire and jailing him would be a show of might, what is emerging is a different perception. Many commentators are questioning Museveni’s ability to deal decisively with a challenge from more powerful monarchs of Buganda and Bunyoro if he must fumble around the Rwenzururu.
The conclusion is that while Museveni, might have won the battle in Kasese since the king was arrested and is facing charges together with his guards, the war is not yet over as the incident may have crystalised animosity against the government in this war-hardened region which borders the volatile eastern DR Congo border which is teeming with Allied Democratic Front (ADF) rebels that have fought Museveni for decades.
If Kibanzanga’s appointment failed to yield any serious pay dirt, Museveni used the poaching strategy most effectively in the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) where tension continues between the Joseph Bossa /Olara Otunnu camp and that of Jimmy Akena. Here, Museveni appears to have gone for the jugular by pocketing its de jure president; the son to party founder and former president, Milton Obote. Museveni even appointed a member of UPC, Amongi Betty Ongom; the Oyam South MP, as minister in his cabinet.
Museveni, albeit on a less significant level, further punched holes in opposition unity when he also named the longtime government leaning leader of the Uganda Federal Alliance, Beti Kamya and Florence Nakiwala Kiyingi from the opposition Democratic Party. Nothing suggests Museveni will not dangle more carrot at insecure opposition leaders in 2017. It is unclear, however, whether that will revive his dwindling popularity among the poverty-stricken public.
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editor@independent.co.ug
