Behind the massacre in Somalia

Kenya distracted

Before it went into its election on Aug.08, the Kenyan government appeared to sense that if it did not steps up its offensive against Al Shabaab, the Islamist terrorist group would wreak havoc.

So the Kenyan Defence Forces on July 09 launched naval exercises in the Al Shabaab hotbed of Lamu’s Shela area.

Just days before the exercises, the Al Shabaab had attacked a police station in the area with an Improvised Explosive Device planted underground. The next day, they beheaded nine civilians in Jima village.

Kenya was also hit in Nairobi’s Westgate shopping mall in 2013 where 67 died and in 2015, 147 people died in a massacre at Garissa University.

But more Kenyans are said to be travelling to a terrorism haven in the Middle East for training, including in bomb-making.

There is fear that Kenya could turn into a terrorist haven if its leaders continue being distracted by the political impasse over the nullification of disputed results of the Aug. 08 election and the failure of President Uhuru Kenyatta and his archrival, Raila Odinga to craft a win-win way out.

Doubts of AMISOM

Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) Spokesperson Brig. Richard Karemire told The Independent that all UPDF are safe. He explained that the attack happened in the middle of town in an area that has markets and a very big population and with lots of traffic.

“This is a vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED),” he said, “It is hidden within the car and went off around 6pm.”

He said at the time, the UPDF team under Brig. (Muhanga) Kayanja was supporting the rescue effort, providing emergency healthcare, securing the area, and continuing to support the Somali forces.

The attack comes just two months to December when AMISOM forces are expected to reduce. A 2017 UN Security Council Resolution approved a reduction of uniformed AMISOM personnel to 21, 625 by Dec 2017, which is a downsizing of roughly 1000 troops. The current composition of AMISOM troops is 22, 126.

The resolution stipulates that another 1000 troops should be reduced by late next year.

“A further reduction to 20,626 uniformed personnel by Oct 30 2018 would follow unless the Council decided to accelerate the pace, taking into account the capabilities of Somali security forces”.

But a former Ugandan commander of AMISOM who preferred to speak on condition of anonymity told The Independent he sees problems in Somalia when the UPDF leaves.

He said that the UN and AU have been talking of an exit strategy where AMISOM should start a gradual withdraw by December but, he said, this could already be contributing to anxiety.

He says the Uganda army top leadership advised the AU and UN against the looming exit in various meetings.

“Whom are you handing over to? We asked them,” the official said, “We instead requested for more troops not an exit. The local force is not up to the task. AMISOM is doing everything. If the exit happens, they will just be handing over to Al Shabaab.”

He said that the Somali forces need more years of training before they can take over.

“The exit strategy if implemented,” he said, “will create a threat of the erosion of gains made by UPDF. There is no local force and that is the problem. Only AMISOM can handle Somalia.” Under this view, the attack on Oct.14 is evidence that the group is far from being eradicated.