China-US rivalry heading to East Africa

Scramble for Africa jitters

But not everyone is enthusiastic about the new “scramble for Africa.” Social justice commentators are fiercely debating the nature of China’s role on the continent. Some argue that while GDPs have soared to new heights in this unprecedented boom, the stark reality is a growing inequality between the continent’s majority and African ruling classes, many of whom are enthusiastic partners with global capital.

Africa Kiiza, the programme officer in charge of trade policy and negotiations at SEATINI says the US-China rivalry has already come to the region.

He told The Independent that the U.S wants to negotiate a trade agreement with the East African region like the EU (EPAs) while China has already entrenched herself in East Africa. “If you just consider the trade deficit the EAC has with       China, that is quite instructive,” Kiiza says.

However, according to Goobi, much as the battle will play out in the region, he sees one “winner” as the U.S appears to have ceded so much ground to China over the past decade.

 “It will be a very long battle because African leaders are so far quite happy with China and remember China has excess capital; the U.S does not have it,” he says, “China has taken over Africa and there is no way back for the U.S or the West.”

Goobi adds that the only way America could claw back some ground is if it does what China is doing—pursuing business at all costs including “turning a blind eye” to African politics. He says the American people would never allow the American government to do what China is doing.

“China can bring money here and finance a dictatorship without much farce back home.”

Dr. Fred Muhumuza, an economist based at Makerere University also told The Independent that in terms of trade he doubts the U.S can dislodge China from this region.

“They do not have that muscle (that China) seems to have.  China has foot soldiers on the ground which America does not.”

The foot soldiers Muhumuza is referring to are the hundreds of Chinese companies, actors, and individuals with direct linkages with the governments.

“The Americans may have similar engagements with the governments but they are donor-development in nature; these are different,” he says, “But America has strategic interests to stay in this region. I see them trying to protect their small interests including their pharmaceutical business.”

Prof. Augustus Nuwagaba, a consultant at Reeve Consult International says the rivalry could end up being beneficial to the region as it will bring about competitiveness, boost investments and lower the cost of borrowing.