COVER STORY: Divided State House

`Declaration of war’

Alliances were already forming. On one hand are those who seemed to agree with Rwabwogo’s calling for the succession debate and on the other, President Museveni and his aides, who don’t see the need for the debate at this point.

Museveni’s loyalists appeared the unhappiest.

Mafabi has penned responses to some of Rwabwogo’s articles forcing many to conclude that the exchange between Museveni’s aide and his son-in-law, speaks volumes about the factions and divisions at State House over President Museveni’s succession.

But Mafabi, who emphasized that he is neither a spokesperson for President Museveni nor for the ruling party, said that he has engaged in this debate because he has always held opinions and has always participated in debates especially on Pan African struggles.

“I am not part of this (debate) in terms of representing a group or any faction,” Mafabi said, “In fact I am not aware of any faction.”

He added: “I am also not the kind who will front “a wrong forum” or throw Odrek’s marriage in his face, all I am saying is that he has access to the President or the Central Executive Committee (CEC) where these issues can be discussed first before they are discussed in public.

I am not saying that the ideas shouldn’t be discussed, he added, I don’t gag people, I defend their rights, even their rights to be different.

“But if you are looking to improve the situation,” Mafabi told The Independent in an interview, “that debate must start from inside, it cannot start from the public, unless it is absolutely clear that it is impossible to have that debate within. Otherwise, you are sending wrong signals to the membership. Yes there are challenges but are things beyond repair?”

Democracy, he emphasized, must move hand in hand with discipline.

Mafabi added that when Rwabwogo talks about forcing internal democracy, it is like “a declaration of war”.

Mafabi asks: “Is President Yoweri Museveni, therefore, the obstacle to the flourishing of internal democracy? Is the forcing process aimed at getting rid of him? How does Rwabwogo propose to go about this?”

In response to his own questions, Mafabi says, apart from the fact that the Constitution already deals with that, there is an element of statecraft; socio-political engineering that is required.

“Founder leaders have a responsibility to mid-wife the transition, you can’t afford to lock them out of the process,” Mafabi says adding that the so-called transition cannot be stampeded.

“I thought my colleagues should have faith in President Museveni to guide this process,” Mafabi added, “Museveni will play a role in it out of necessity.”

Mafabi was elaborating his own series of articles that he has authored in response to Rwabwogo’s.

For loyalists of President Museveni, the most rabble-rousing of Rwabwogo’s article was published on Feb.13.

The article was titled: “Are strongmen a hindrance or facilitator to institutional growth, successful political transition?”

“Unlike Singapore,” the article reads in part, “Uganda (1986), Rwanda (1994) and Ethiopia (1991) perhaps provide a good case study of how strongmen in various ways first grew, then progressively retarded, and in some cases replaced and eventually became the very institutions they meant to build.”

Rwabwogo adds: “And what’s more, people support them because of the fear of the unknown, complicating further the process of political transition.  “This is why there is need to force internal party democracy in order to carry out the stalled but much-needed second-generation reforms in the economy and governance, if we have to increase the rate of social change.”

In response, writing in Daily Monitor, Mafabi accused Rwabwogo of causing ideological confusion.

“There is certainly more than enough internal party democracy in the NRM,” Mafabi writes, “Rwabwogo is clearly wrong on this one.”

Mafabi emphasizes that President Yoweri Museveni does not brook too much discussion and debate on only the area of national defense and security.

“In other areas and sectors, the discussions, consultations, retreats, are endless – in the search for a consensus, for getting everybody on board,” Mafabi notes.

In return, NRM Spokesperson and Media Centre boss, Ofwono Opondo, accused Mafabi of attempting to gag Rwabwogo.

President Museveni, on his part, has said the time to debate succession is not now.

“Right now,” Museveni recently told reporters, “our focus is eliminating poverty. When the right time comes, we will talk about those other things. Not that it (succession) is not important, but there is a time for it. We will get time and discuss it.”

72-year old President Museveni makes 35 years in power at the end of the current five year term in 2021. At the time, he will already be 75 years, which the presidential age limit talks about as the bar for contesting. But he is expected to seek re-election because already, the ruling party is pushing to amend the Constitution and lift the age limit.

This will be the second time the constitution is amended to make way for Museveni to stay in power. In 2005, Parliament amended the Constitution and lifted term limits. Critics say that if the age limit is lifted, President Museveni will have been handed an indefinite pass to life presidency.

Maj. Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba

Right now that is not on my radar at all as I said before because we are looking at other tasks. I am not considering a political career right now.

Janet Museveni

Why don’t you save that until we get back into that period? We are so far away from there. Let’s wait.

President Museveni

Right now, our focus is eliminating poverty. When the right time comes, we will talk about those other things. Not that it (succession) is not important, but there is a time for it. We will get time and discuss it.

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editor@independent.co.ug