COVER STORY: Hoima and 2021 election battles

Accident of history

Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a renowned pundit on elections and democracy and lecturer at Makerere University told The Independent that the key lesson from Hoima is that winning is not about the numbers one gets at the ballot but is about demonstrating political support for the fight.

First he said, winning is determined by many factors – political and some organisational. That opposition could have lost because they did not have money, had limited access to radio and other media, had organisational challenges, no state machinery. The NRM had all these factors in their favor including the Electoral Commission, Ndebesa said.

But he said that by looking at the figures, one could easily say the opposition is gaining ground in the hearts of the people.

“It does not matter whether you win an election in Africa. What matters is a demonstration or a feeling out there that there is political support for a side in a particular region,” he added.

“The NRM people are not fools,” Ndebesa said, “they know that they may have won the votes in terms of the ballot but in terms of political support it has been eroded.”

He said there are clear examples in Egypt and Tunisia that winning at the ballot may not be sustainable for a party that has lost political support of the people.

“If you win at the ballot yet the political support at heart is with other people, there can be an accident of history and you will see real support coming up.

“This winning of the ballot business is not the will of the people that is echoed in the ballot box, it is the money that the state has; it is political influence and intimidation they have that is echoed in the ballot paper,” he explained further.

Museveni can’t be defeated

As the opposition continues to mobilise for 2021, Ndebesa says it is impossible to defeat Museveni at the ballot and “you get the Electoral Commission declaring you the winner.” He said this has happened in Zimbabwe under the late Robert Mugabe.

The solution, Ndebesa said is for the opposition to just continue mobilising the people and create a political climate where NRM knows that in terms of positive support it has declined.

Once that is achieved, he said NRM and Museveni would be forced to negotiate on the political issues of the land.

“Negotiations in one case can actually force the NRM regime to opt for a national dialogue and force Museveni to step down,” Ndebesa said.

Facts and numbers

• Following the voters’ register update exercise held from Aug.12-16, 2019, Hoima registered 143,2732voters.
• There was a reduction of 5,398 voters removed from the register for several reasons including transfers and deletions
• According to the National Population and Housing Census 2014, Hoima District has a population of 572,986 of which 287,906 are males and 285,080 are females

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