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Kampala, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | Fears that had been raised amongst weather experts that excessively heavy rains would pound Uganda in the coming days have subsided.
The Uganda National Meteorological Authority-UNMA now says the country will continue receiving normal rainfall over several parts of the country in the next five days. This is despite a heavy rainfall projection from Kenya between today and Tuesday.
Doreen Nanziri, a weather analyst at UNMA says that Uganda will continue receiving normal rainfall that is below 30 milimeters in the next three days.
In September, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) predicted a drier than usual rainfall season between October to December 2020 in most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Somalia and Ethiopia. It however noted that a wetter than usual season (above 40mm of rainfall) is expected in Western Uganda and Northern Somalia.
It also predicted warmer than usual temperatures over most of the region with higher temperatures expected in western Uganda, central South Sudan, and northeastern Sudan, parts of southern Kenya and over Tanzania’s coast.
Also cooler than usual temperatures were projected over western Tanzania and over the central parts of the region. This would result in early start of rains (month of September) in Uganda, Rwanda, western Kenya and the area around the border intersections of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya.
But Nanziri says that the current rains being received in Uganda tally with the daily and seasonal forecast which indicate that there is an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall between September to December 2020.
However, Tanzania (Northern region) and Kenya (mostly central parts of the country) are expecting heavy rainfalls in the coming days.
The World Meteorolgical Organization defines heavy rainfall as rainfall greater than or equal to 50mm received in past 24 hours.
The Kenya Meteorology Department in a letter dated November 5th, 2020, issued a heavy rainfall advisory. The department says the rainfall being experienced in several parts of the country is expected to continue between 8th to 10th November.
“It is likely to intensify to more than 30 milimetres in 24 hours over Western, South Western, parts of coastal regions on 8th and 9th November. The heavy rainfall is likely to reduce in intensity on Tuesday 10th November, 2020,” the department noted.
37 areas are likely to be affected including Busia, Nyeri, Kiambu, Mombasa and Lamu.
As a result, the department has advised residents in the affected areas to be on the lookout for potential floods because the water levels in rivers, lakes and dams over Lake Victoria basin, North West, the highlands among other areas are expected to remain high.
The amount of rainfall received in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania has a direct effect on the water levels of Lake Victoria.
For instance, the three countries received heavy rainfall which resulted in the drastic increase of Lake Victoria water levels from 12 metres in October 2019 to 13.48 metres in May 2020. This was the highest level ever recorded in 50 years.
The waters submerged homes, shops and key infrastructure along the shores and beach lines across the region and even threatened human life and livelihoods. It affected over 40 million people who depend on Lake Victoria for food, business and transport.
However, by end of June, the water levels started receding after a change in rain patterns and a reduction in inflows from the 23 rivers that flow into the basin including Rivers Kagera and Yala.
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