ICC to rule if S. Africa broke rules by not arresting Sudan’s Bashir

– ‘Complicated matter’ –

International law experts agree the ICC’s judges are likely to find South Africa failed in its obligations to arrest and surrender Bashir.

But they added it was not a simple matter of rapping Pretoria over the knuckles.

“The manner and tone in which the decision is meted out will be of utmost importance,” said international law expert Mark Kersten of the University of Toronto.

“It is possible, and what many hope, is that the decision will show some degree of understanding, and perhaps lenience towards South Africa and suggest that the matter continues to be debated at the appeals level,” Kersten told AFP.

The ICC’s judges could also refer the case to the court’s Assembly of States Parties or the UN Security Council for further action.

– Withdrawal? –

Zuma last week reiterated South Africa’s intentions to pull out of the ICC, saying it was “rectifying procedural challenges.”

South Africa announced it had told the United Nations in October that it was pulling out of the ICC following the Bashir debacle.

But a South African court in February ordered Pretoria to reverse the decision, saying it was unconstitutional.

Kaajal Ramjathan-Keogh, executive director at the Southern Africa Litigation Centre, said it was far from certain judges will refer the case to the UN Security Council amid “certain sensitivities” about Pretoria’s continued membership.

And if they do then “the effect, looking at the ICC’s history, is going to be minimal,” she added.

Last month, the ICC’s chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda renewed her call for UN Security Council support in “efforts to execute the arrest warrants” against Bashir.

“At a minimum, the council should demonstrate its support for the work of my office by taking concrete action in response to decisions of non-compliance or non-cooperation referred to it by the court,” Bensouda said.