Kagame’s ‘political phenomenon’

Rwandans show love for the president with 99% victory in election but uncertainty looms on future without him

COVER STORY | IAN KATUSIIME | Thirty years since he led the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) to capture power in Kigali after ending the genocide against the Tutsi, Rwandan President Paul Kagame was re-elected to a fourth term with a not unexpected 99% victory — a little over the margin he secured in the 2017 election — underscoring the dominance of Kagame in a country where he has been president since 2000.

The result from the July 15 presidential and parliamentary election means that nine out of every ten people that showed up to vote, voted for Kagame. The same numbers were reflected in the voter turn-out which hit 98% in the designated 2500 polling stations.

The other candidates in the race, Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda, and Philippe Mpayimana, an independent, scored a combined less than 1% in an election where nothing out of the ordinary was anticipated unlike what happens in a region that includes Uganda, Kenya, DR Congo, and Burundi.

Two days before voting, a fired up crowd of an estimated 50,000 supporters turned out for Kagame’s last campaign rally on a sunny day at Gahanga cricket stadium in Kicukiro, a district in the capital. Adorned in RPF colours; white blue and red, they eagerly waited to listen to a leader they say they trust and believe in.

Kagame, the RPF chairman, was equally elated when he arrived. Moving in a military Jeep cordoned by Counter Terrorism Unit soldiers, he waved to the crowd and affirmed their pride. Kagame appeared in a party-branded white long sleeved T-shirt, army green cargo pants and a red cap.

By the time he took to the podium at around midday to address supporters; some of whom had come as early as 4am to grab secure spots, the atmosphere was cathartic. “You can’t fake unity, you can’t fake excitement, you can’t fake a turn up like this one, you can’t,” he said to the cheering crowd speaking mostly in Kinyarwanda. He added, “It is a political phenomenon.”

With the exception of journalists and security, nearly everyone who turned up at the rally was dressed in RPF-branded wear and would often break out in song and dance. The event was a culmination of a three-week campaign that appears to have energised Rwandans of all stripes.

Young people especially the Gen Z, more known for upending the political establishment in Kenya, are playing a different role in Rwanda where they appear to firmly support the ruling RPF. For the Gen Z in Rwanda, Kagame is the only leader they have known.

According to the National Electoral Commission of Rwanda, there were two million first time voters of the registered nine million. “It is my pride and responsibility since our government told us to be proud,” said Aline Niwemwali, a high school student, who voted for her first time at the polling station at Gacuriro Technical Secondary School, Kinyinya sector.

It was the same station where Kagame cast his vote alongside his family. The President drove to the venue with the First Lady, Jeanette Kagame, where they were joined by daughter Ange Kagame and her husband. Ivan Kagame and Captain Ian Kagame, a member of his father’s security detail, had voted earlier.

Massive mobilisation

Rwandans poured out in large numbers to vote including those living abroad who voted from Rwandan embassies. The unity and resolve among Rwandans to ward off questions from outsiders about their country and body politic constantly scrutinised for its apparent strictures was evident in the mobilisation and urge to vote. RPF rallies were well organised and well attended in no small part to the formidable political machine that has governed Rwanda for three decades.

Kigali and other areas outside the city were inundated with RPF paraphernalia; flags, billboards, Kagame’s images, slogans like ToraKagame, PK2024, Muzehe Wacu. The euphoria that engulfed the nation in this year’s campaign picked up from 2017 when social media had already gone mainstream globally.

Throughout events in areas like Musanze in northern Rwanda where the campaigns started in late June to districts like Rubavu, Rusizi, Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kagame reminded Rwandans of the progress they have made since the tragic events of 1994, and called for togetherness and self-belief. Tens of thousands graced his rallies across the country.

In Huye district, in the south, Kagame shared a message that was from the heart. “In 1978, I sneaked into the country to visit some friends because I was a refugee living outside the country, he said.

At the time, Kagame was living in Uganda and was just about to get recruited into a force fighting for Uganda’s liberation from Idi Amin events that laid a foundation for the liberation war of Rwanda then led by President Juvenal Habyarimana who said Rwanda was “too full” to accept refugees.

“But that will not happen again, No Rwandan will ever be kept outside of this country as a refugee ever again. This problem was resolved forever, by you and us together,” Kagame said.

Kagame is a popular leader and a larger than life figure in Rwanda. Those who contested against him stood no chance. Habineza and Mpayimana stood in the last election but their challenge to Kagame’s long reign remains muted.

Mpayimana’s campaign venue, a playground in Mburabuturo in Kigali, barely had a soul before he arrived save for the journalists that had converged to hear him out. Showing up in a Toyota vehicle with a handful of security escorts, Mpayimana, a 54-year-old politician, journalist and writer confidently answered questions and promised to create a million jobs if elected.

Mpayimana who speaks Kinyarwanda, Swahili, Lingala, French, and English said that he runs as an independent candidate because of how divisive political parties can be. He steered clear of criticising the government unlike a typical opposition figure. The head of the electoral body Oda Gasinzigwa said no facilitation is extended to candidates leaving the likes of Mpayimana to strut it on their own.

Parliamentary elections

Less notable was the election of parliamentarians. The Rwandan parliament has two houses; the Senate which is the upper house and the Chamber of the Deputies which is the lower house. “Senate members can be appointed or elected but for two terms only. Senators aren’t voted directly by citizens. They are voted by a college and a special group,” said a government media officer.

He added, “And the president has a number of people he can appoint.” Rwandans voted for members of the lower chamber which has 80 MPs.

David Maraga, former Kenyan Chief Justice and the head of the East African Community Election Observation Mission described the electoral process as orderly and peaceful; especially on poling day.

But in spite of what was an incident-free exercise, questions linger on how truly open the political space is in Rwanda.

Renowned Kagame critic Diane Rwigara was barred from running as a presidential candidate by the National Electoral Commission on grounds that she lacked the required number of signatures. A presidential candidate in Rwanda is required to raise 600 signatures gathered from all thirty districts. In 2017, Rwigara was also not cleared as a candidate. She was arrested with her mother and jailed for a year on charges of inciting insurrection.

“After all the time, work and effort I put in, I am very disappointed to hear that I am not on the list of presidential candidates. @PaulKagame why won’t you let me run? This is the second time you cheat me out of my right to campaign. Ndababaye” She posted on X when she was not approved as a candidate.

Victoire Ingabire, an opposition politician who returned to Rwanda in 2010 and did not qualify to run for president based on a criminal conviction, says there is need for governance reform to “achieve genuine democratisation through inclusive dialogue among political and civil society stakeholders” in an opinion she wrote in the UK newspaper Guardian. She added, “Continually winning presidential elections with close to 100% of the vote is not a sign of popularity, but of a lack of competition.”

Kagame obviously looks at the numbers differently. At an RPF watch party held on the night results started trickling in, he was in a triumphant mood saying even if it were 100%, it would not just be a number but a reflection of trust which is the most important thing.

President Kagame has been hailed for reconciliation in Rwanda away from the ethnic divisions that caused the genocide where over a million people were killed in a three month period. He has also been praised for building functional institutions and promoting accountability in government through programmes like Umushikyirano (National Dialogue).

Rwanda after Kagame?

But what happens after him? There is always a haunting uncertainty when a leader has been in power for more than twenty years. Kagame is conscious of this and he spoke his mind while at a press conference at the Kigali Convention Centre.

“I am not sure what happens when I am not here. I do not want to start imagining things. I do what I have to do while I am here,” he said.

“I don’t think there’s only Kagame only…there’s Kagame with these people you see. We make progress because we are together. The Rwandans contribute a lot to make things happen.”

He said that in his absence, Rwandans could make a choice that could even lead them better. The President said he told the RPF to look for other leaders and while on the campaign trail he also persistently told young people to take up responsibility. Reiterating his point, Kagame said he became president at a young age which should be reason for others to take up the mantle.

However even as he opened up on the possible transition process in Rwanda, there is a dilemma he and the RPF are caught up in. Potential leaders may not rise up when the chairman of the party is still running for president. Kagame is eligible to run again in 2029. By the end of his two terms if he runs again, he will be 76 a ripe old age although he will still be younger than his Ugandan counterpart President Yoweri Museveni who at his current age of 79 is planning to run again in 2026.

Kagame however argues that the question of him leaving power is always pushed by those outside Rwanda. “These people who made me president are telling me they still want me to be president. Somebody else somewhere says, no, no, no, you are here too long. But these guys who even ask these questions, who tell me that even if they wanted, they cannot be the president of Rwanda because they don’t belong here.”