The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
Nations can change and improve their governance and need a certain amount of time and space to do so without violent intrusions in their internal affairs. In any case, who is ECOWAS to care more about the interests of Gambians than the Gambian people themselves? If Gambians want Barrow as president, let them go onto the streets and stop Jammeh from usurping their freely expressed will. Civilians can surmount dictators as was demonstrated in Tunisia and Egypt in 2011, Burkina Faso in October 2014 and only last week in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
It took the Western world decades, in fact centuries, of trial and error, feats and starts to realise the quality of democracy they have today. If democracy works in Western countries, it is because it evolved organically out of these societies and was shaped by myriad negotiations and compromises between the different social forces. Therefore, attempts by Western powers supported by the secular priesthood to promote democracy in poor countries are actually attempts to force long-term trends to a premature conclusion.
ECOWAS is taking a big gamble to try and impose democracy on Gambia by force. It will most likely be easy for ECOMOG forces to defeat the Gambian army, which seems to support Jammeh. But like the Americans have discovered in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, defeating a dictator is easy but creating lasting peace, leave alone a functional democratic system, is a whole different ballgame. Therefore, ECOMOG could ignite a civil war that may last years and leave wounds that are difficult to heal.
This is not the first time ECOWAS is trying to impose a solution on a member state. In 1990, Charles Taylor was on the verge of capturing power in Liberia when that body intervened through ECOMOG to enforce a solution. This prolonged the civil war by 13 years and left the country almost destroyed. As I have argued before, the best solution for Liberia at the time would have been to leave (or even help) Taylor who was strong, capture power.
I have utmost confidence in the people of Gambia to secure their democracy by themselves. This may not happen today or tomorrow. But we need to avoid the temptation of thinking we can solve Africa’s problems with theoretical quick fixes. Left alone Gambians are best placed to shape the compromises that will ensure durable democratic practice. Foreign military intervention to force Barrow into power will undermine the necessary internal political negotiations that allow democracy to grow and consolidate.
Instead, foreign forces will create an artificial scenario where the defeated feel they have been removed from power by foreign interests and may feel alienated from the political process and launch a civil war or wait until foreign armies leave for them to begin a war. Meanwhile, victorious political players, knowing where their bread is battered, will now depend on foreign military force for their political survival. This will undermine their incentives to seek internal political compromise and social integration.
I pray and hope that my predictions on Gambia don’t materialise because future generations of Gambians will be happy that I was wrong. I predicted for Libya in 2011that NATO airstrikes would certainly remove Muammar Gadaffi but the result would be neither a stable government nor a functional democracy. Instead, I predicted anarchy. Libya today is a mosaic of small fiefdoms ruled by belligerent warlords. Please ECOWAS, do not allow your fantastical theories to lead you to actions likely to create another Libya in The Gambia.
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amwenda@independent.co.ug
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editor@independent.co.ug
There is logic in the argument. Nevertheless, the era of sovereignty with non-interference seems to have gone. Ivory Coast is a bit better I assume with Gbagbo out. Jammeh should humble himself and respect the outcomes of the election, ECOMOG will not be in Gambia if he does.
Africans are tired of authoritarians!
a bit better? how? did u hear of the military mutiny in Qattara’s comp?
1.The main goal of ECOWAS is to coordinate Trade amongest member states so when did it become a army unit?African leaders believe that they all have similar social,political and economic problems and any attempt by a fellow African Leader to caution the other is these days taken as familiarity(Kujjoga)Ug outgrew that during FRONSA days we would be summoned to Nairobi now who cares about Nairobi?
2. Doesnt Jammeh have advisers?why did he in the 1st place even concede defeat i beleive he was still engulfed with spirits.A few African leaders concede defeat e.g Kibaki Vs Odinga ”Things had to be patched up”
3.Mgt of outcome of elections in Africa have improved (any attempt to practice democracy is now disguised in Law)its now easy for African Leaders who want to rule longer to save face by practicing this:.Jammeh should have simply amended the Constitution lifting term limits thru a referendum or filed for a recount of votes .if he had done this, the air in Gambia would not be thick with confusion and anger.
4.Naturally its irritating & unconformable for Africans to be reprimanded.
5.The 6 Billion payment can’t be justified in court coz those who received the money were from 5 different institutions do all those institutions have honorarium in their policy? if yes honorarium is paid after deducting just 20%of one’s salary how did Akol get 200m?(Bambi there is a way M7’s money is tempting and sweet you just cant resit it if you r normal.
6.I failed to make sense of AG’s mad rush to block discussion about the 6 Billion. lf it was paid in good faith why the fuss at times govt needs to just clarify on small issues.
7.I know sometimes you need to fight dirty to get clean.What did Kadaga just do?She single handedly caused MPs to strike?she should be in Luzira coz this is a coup: coz (i)no voting was carried out to make the decision to close parliament (never mind they do nothing)(ii) She did not consult her supervisors the Executive.
8.Winnie was right to have stood as surety for Mathew.
9.This breed of Acholi MP’s is worrying as if Govt sent Mathew to kill Akena .I wonder why dont t behave like high profile Acholis like;Aliker,Okeny,Olowch William,Otema,Apire Richard,Sue Ochola,Lalobos(obaa there is a differnce btw the Acholi from Gulu and those from Kitgum)
10. Mathew is being tried in court its like they want him hanged there and then how come they did not cry when Dominic Ongwen was before ICC? Is Mathew worse than Kony?they better stop.
So because you were right about Libya you think you will be right about Gambia. Your arguments are all over the place, They did leave Charles Taylor in power as an “elected president” in Liberia he turned round and played a part in destabilizing neighbouring Sierra-lone. Liberia today is functioning peaceful democracy without him. So yes the ECOWAS intervention did prove to be the right move as it did later in Sierra-lone and Guinea-Bissau. Gadaffi had unresolved issues with the west for years and no you were not the only one who foresaw what would happen. It was a repeat of what happened with Saddam Hussein in iraq, But Libya is not Gambia and West Africa is not the west.
Jameh was defeated and refused to vacate power, and if he doesn’t want to go he should be removed simple. And since we are now in the business of fortune-telling. Gambia will be just fine thank you.