The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
Grace wanted to exploit her husband’s advanced age to propel herself to the presidency. She cultivated support of the ZANU-PF youth and began using them as an instrument against the ZANU-PF old guard. This way, Grace represented an actual change of power in Zimbabwe from an old, tired guard to a new demographic. But she forgot that Mugabe had cultivated and consolidated his power by building a broad alliance of an old guard whose foundation was the military and this had remained solid. When she alienated them, they struck back.
This brings me to Museveni’s Uganda. Those worried about his longevity need to worry even more. Museveni has actually disbanded the old guard in the NRM and the UPDF, but most especially the UPDF. While the military leaders of Zimbabwe are all from the old guard who fought the bush war, Museveni has purged UPDF of these people.
Almost the entire leadership of the UPDF today was not in the bush. And with the exit of Amama Mbabazi, the NRM lost the last historical with political weight that could resemble that of Mnangagwa. Events in Zimbabwe may hasten Museveni’s elimination of any serious rival for power within NRM’s Old guard.
Secondly, Museveni is still young and alert. I think Mugabe lost the plot because he had grown too old and tired to conduct all the intrigues of power. Museveni is 20 years younger than Mugabe.
Unless his health deteriorates faster than his age, he still has the alertness of mind and vigor to control power by placating the interests of Uganda’s diverse and unruly elites. The push to remove age limits only shows the strength of his power and his ability to position himself as the most important vehicle for the furtherance of the interests of the most critical social forces of our country.
Far from changing his mind on longevity, Mugabe’s fall may only remind Museveni of the reforms and changes he needs to accomplish in the power structure of the NRM and UPDF to protect himself from any unwelcome power grab. Besides, Museveni’s family seem firmly under his control. No one drives him the way Grace drove Robert.
They all act at his beck and call. Attempts by his son in law, Odrek Rwabwogo, to run for the post of NRM vice chairman for western Uganda were thwarted. His column on ideology was banned. With Mugabe’s example he may learn better how to disguise any plans for a family succession.
Therefore those keen to see Museveni go need to study the source of his power and acquire means to wreck it. Hoping that Zimbabwe will play itself out automatically in Uganda is most likely going to be a pipe dream.
Its not very often that I agree with MWENDA, so for me to agree with him two times in a week is like the proverbial thunder striking twice.
I, likewise have scoffed at those who suggest that what has happened in ZIMBABWE should be a lesson for UGANDA. At the end of the day, the only person who will have learnt a (useful) lesson from the events in Zimbabwe or things that have happened to MUGABE , is M 7.
M 7 came to power and has managed to stay in power by being ruthless and cunning and in most cases cleverer than those who come up against him as was proved by the case with AMAMA MBABAZI.
For everything that happens, M 7 takes time to study it and assess its impact. This he did with the Arab spring, what happened to Gaddafi , even people do not realise the big lesson that M 7 learnt from UHURUS case with the ICC.
Like with my posting in the pages of this paper on the TOGIKWATAKO article, the opposition have to do alot more to out think the HYENA.
Andrew: As long as Museveni continues to hang on to power, by all means, his end is unpredictable. It can be the Mugabe way or the Gadaffi way since he seems determined to die in power. Either way, it will not end well.
Grace Mugabe ‘s character and excessive greed for power has swiftly accelerated mugabe ‘s fall from power and has sparked off his collapse of which none could imagine before 2014.
Museveni must understand that any factor however mighty he may be can ignite a downfall. he should just be prepared for life after presidency and should re- orient his army to stand by him and respect him and the citizenry even at the worst moment of his regime as Zimbabwe defense forces have done.surely the ZDF is a very mature army unique in character on the African continent.
It’s quite simple here Andrew or the readers. Rather than trying to explain the DNA of each preferred persons, it is very easy to conclude that each person has their unique last or final days. Revolutionary leaders are meant to simply prepare a country for when this happens.
Museveni’s end will be absolutely unique like no other president’s and not even a mosquito in the state house will be ready. That’s what is so similar to Mugabe , Gaddafi, Arab spring, Assad and many more. Let me salute Mandela and Nyerere here for putting country before self egos.
Abbey Alb, you forgot Jerry Rawlings of Ghana, who has found a useful life for himself after presidency. He followed the constitution and retired after his second term as required by their constitution.
There is this thing they call “BOUNDED RATIONALITY” which really means that only God is ALL KNOWING and can therefore be expected to maximize utilization of that knowledge in His actions/decisions. Mortals, because of boundedness of their rationality, are certain to err even when they intend to maximize their benefits as they control costs. So each leader in their respective contexts is bound to make fatal mistakes especially as time goes on, at the same time exposed to different forms of pressure. I think that is why we studied the rise and fall of empires. So those who aim for regime change must persist in prodding those in power to stretch their rationality and success surely comes. Mugabe lost legitimacy long time ago though kept rigging elections and the military knew that. It is no surprise that yesterday and indeed today they (military) have made it explicit by allowing massive demonstrations. All along they knew he had lost support and were propping him up for their own interests.
So funny how people reside comfortably in denial.. no matter how much or how good you may mask something, its nature never disappears completly.. I’m amazed how people today people put infrastructure before their own provision…if anything doesn’t cater for the desire of the human soul… it’s not required of us to have in our world.. what people NEED is not nice English speaking politicians. .what people NEED is the awakening and satisfaction of their DESIRE.. Call it fantasy but I tell you it’s the foundation of human life..
Mwenda is trying to tell us that in order for M7 to fall it has to be the same way as Mugabe. I do not think so. Each system or leader has weaknesses unique to it that leads to downfall. M7 has his own and his end would come in one form or another. It is just a matter of time