Alex Vines, the head of the Africa Programme at the London-based Chatham House think tank told AFP recently that Lourenco is an ideal transitional successor to dos Santos. He is respected by the military and has not lived a flamboyant lifestyle of many others.
To some, the selection of Lourenco as a successor to dos Santos and the avoidance of a dynastic transition to one of the president’s children showed that “internal checks and balances could have been stronger than many believed,” Soren Kirk Jensen, another analyst of African politics at Chatham House noted.
“As the process unfolds, it is clear that Angola is following the pattern of gradual democratisation from other governments in southern Africa headed by former liberation parties that led the armed struggle for independence from colonial powers,” he said.
Dos Santos is credited for ending Angola’s bloody civil war that lasted from 1975 to 2002. He has also overseen a post war investment boom, thanks to the country vast oil reserves. But analysts also say the billions of petrol dollars brought little benefit to Angola’s poor, and the dip in oil prices in 2014 triggered a full scale economic crisis in the oil-dependent economy.
Many Angolans expressed enthusiasm about voting, partly because they could choose a new president. Analysts noted that close to 93% of the population, those 54 and younger were not yet born or were only children when dos Santos first rose to power. Dos Santos, popularly known as “Zedu” was almost the only president they have ever known.
Other observers said the choice of Lourenco shows the desire for continuity as many more generals have wielded political influence over Angola in the past.
Angolan opposition activist, Nuno Dala was critical of Lourenco’s nomination saying power in the country is most likely to remain in the hands of the military because Lourenco is a general.
Lourenco, 63, who hails from the coastal city of Lobito in Benguela underwent military training in the former Soviet Union and served as Political Commissioner of the MPLA’s revolutionary army, the FPLA.
He has also served as party secretary, and head of the MPLA Parliamentary group. He also served as the first vice president of the national assembly from 1998 to 2003. Lourenco was appointed defence minister in April 2014. Many find Lourenco the ideal head of state.
Lourenco will now have to chart a course to Angola’s economic recovery, including tackling corruption and diversifying the economy, that does not threaten allies of the president who have enriched themselves over the last four years.
But Dos Santos who ruled Angola, Africa’s fifth largest economy, left in place safeguards to ensure his legacy and influence. He remains the leader of the MPLA, and has ensured legal guarantees of lifelong immunity from prosecution, and the continued role of Isabel, as chief executive of Sonangol.
In July, the MPLA-dominated Parliament also passed a law that would prevent the incoming president from removing the heads of the country’s army, security and intelligence services until 2025.
The issue of Uganda’s failure to have a peaceful democratic transition from one regime to the next in Uganda’s political history remains a matter of great concern and raises fundamental questions.
Political scientists say the only way to demonstrate a country’s political maturity and stability is the ability to have uncontested regular and predictable political transitions based on coherent and democratically agreed upon rules of procedure.
Tags angola Dos Santos MPLA Museveni nrm politics Ronald Musoke succession transition Uganda
The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
