Love or hate Abiy Ahmed, you can’t ignore his work

COMMENT | MAHLET AYELE BEYECHA – CONNECT2AFRICA |   On the occasion of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s 49th birthday (August 15), Ethiopia’s leader finds himself as one of the most praised and criticized figures in contemporary Africa. Few African leaders in recent memory have risen to power—and governed—under such intense expectation, resistance, and scrutiny. When he took office in April 2018, Ethiopia was teetering. Mass protests had eroded the legitimacy of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), ethnic tensions threatened to unravel the state, and the specter of collapse loomed. Ethiopians and many international observers, mindful of Africa’s often violent transitions, predicted state failure.

Yet Abiy’s ascent defied that script. He assumed power through a rare, largely bloodless transition rather than by force. Still, he took charge at a moment of unprecedented fragility. Ethiopia was fractured by internal divisions, diminished in regional stature, and estranged from key global allies. The struggle was not only for stability or legitimacy but for the survival of the nation’s identity and future. Could the then 41-year-old, Africa’s youngest head of state, surmount these challenges and reshape Ethiopia’s path? Seven years on, after an inaugural address that raised hopes among Ethiopians at home and in the diaspora, what has he actually achieved?

Breaking the Ice to establish peace with Eritrea

One of Abiy Ahmed’s earliest and most consequential achievements was ending the decades-long stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea. For over twenty years, the two neighbours had been locked in a frozen conflict: borders sealed, families divided, trade suffocated, and nationalist mistrust entrenched. Yet, within weeks of taking office, Abiy took the extraordinary step of flying to Asmara to meet President Isaias Afwerki.

The handshake and embrace that followed stunned the region and the world. That bold initiative produced the Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship, formally ending the state of war. Embassies reopened, and diplomatic and passenger flights between Addis Ababa and Asmara resumed. Cross-border trade which had been all but halted resurrected, phone lines reconnected loved ones, and in once-hostile border towns, families reunited, and a long-lost sense of normalcy began to return.

Abiy accomplished this, not through diplomacy by routine, but diplomacy by audacity. The risks were enormous. At home, it challenged entrenched military elites and political factions long suspicious of Eritrea. Regionally, it disrupted a carefully maintained status quo that had kept Eritrea isolated and the Horn of Africa strategically fragmented.

Internationally, it unsettled foreign powers accustomed to leveraging those divisions for their own influence. It was the kind of gamble that could have ended Abiy’s premiership before it had even begun. Yet it paid off. His decision to act decisively, where predecessors and contemporaries had chosen caution or even complicity, earned him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

Peacefully Ending the War in Northern Ethiopia

If rapprochement with Eritrea was Abiy Ahmed’s first bold move, the war in Northern Ethiopia that erupted in late 2020 was his first true reckoning. For two years, the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) clashed in a conflict that brought the country perilously close to disintegration. Critics rushed to cast Ethiopia as “the next Yugoslavia,” eager to dismantle Abiy’s reformist image and question the worth of his Nobel Peace Prize, as though he were the first laureate ever forced to govern through war.

Much of this commentary ignored a basic truth: peace in Ethiopia, as elsewhere, is rarely linear. A peace prize does not exempt a leader from confronting conflict, nor diminish the obligation to resolve it. Amid the turmoil, Abiy mobilised Ethiopians at home and abroad, rallied continental solidarity, and resisted external interference in Ethiopia’s sovereign affairs. At the same time, he quietly built the foundations for a negotiated settlement.

That effort culminated in the November 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, brokered under African Union auspices. The accord halted active hostilities, initiated disarmament, and reopened channels for national reconciliation. Thus, barely three years into his premiership, Abiy had ended Ethiopia’s bloodiest internal conflict in decades and, in doing so, proved the viability of African-led solutions to African conflicts, at a time when foreign-driven mediation remained the default, and when many across the continent yearned for a renewed era of continental self-determination.

Completing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

Although construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) began in 2011, long before Abiy Ahmed assumed office, it was under his leadership that this historic project finally was completed. For decades, the GERD embodied Ethiopia’s sovereign ambition to end energy poverty and fuel industrialization, symbolizing national pride and development aspirations.

Yet progress was repeatedly stalled by regional opposition, particularly from downstream countries Egypt and Sudan, alongside international diplomatic pressures. Budget overruns and delays threatened to consign the GERD to the long list of unrealized African megaprojects. When Abiy took office, the dam was approximately 60% complete, and under unprecedented regional and international pressure to halt.

Abiy revived the project with renewed urgency and determination. He mobilized domestic resources, restored momentum, and stood firm against both overt and covert attempts to derail construction. Crucially, his administration dismantled the corrupt national institution METEC (Metals and Engineering Corporation), which had previously delayed progress.

Today, the GERD is operational, generating electricity, lighting millions of homes, and fostering regional economic integration through cross-border energy exports. Beyond power generation, the completion of the GERD under Abiy’s leadership has transformed Ethiopia’s geopolitical standing. Regional detractors now recognize that Ethiopia will not be dictated to, and global powers increasingly respect its sovereignty and development ambitions.

Reclaiming Ethiopia’s Maritime Ambitions

Abiy Ahmed’s pursuit of sea access and naval modernization is among his most transformative initiatives, addressing a vulnerability that has constrained Ethiopia since it became landlocked after Eritrea’s independence in 1993. With over 95% of trade routed through neighboring ports, particularly Djibouti, Ethiopia has faced high costs and limited autonomy in global commerce. For a nation of 120 million, Africa’s second-largest population, this dependency is not merely an economic burden but a strategic chokepoint. Restoring maritime access is central to Ethiopia’s economic sovereignty, Africa-wide influence, and regional leadership.

In 2024, Abiy achieved a diplomatic breakthrough by signing a Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, securing access to the port of Berbera and a 20-kilometer coastal lease for a naval base. The agreement, which includes Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty, gives Ethiopia a strategic foothold on the Red Sea, a vital artery for global trade. While some regional pushback is understandable, stemming from potential loss of port revenues and territorial concerns, the deal is a win-win for Ethiopia, Somaliland, and the broader region.

Parallel to these efforts, Abiy has revived Ethiopia’s navy, disbanded in 1991 after the loss of coastal territory. Since announcing plans in 2019 to rebuild a modern naval force, Ethiopia has made rapid progress. By 2025, naval training programs are underway, and vessel acquisitions have begun. The revitalized navy strengthens Ethiopia’s ability to safeguard trade routes, combat piracy, trafficking, and instability, and assert its presence in the Red Sea—a region critical to Africa and global security alike.

Critics, especially in neighboring states, view Ethiopia’s ambitions as a potential destabilizing move. Yet it is clear that a nation of Ethiopia’s size, economic potential, and historical stature cannot remain landlocked without compromising its development and influence. Maritime access is necessary to tackle Ethiopia’s decades-long vulnerability while redefining the country’s regional, continental, and global role, cementing its maritime influence in one of the world’s most strategic regions.

Greening the Nation with the Green Legacy Initiative

Among Abiy Ahmed’s most ambitious undertakings is the Green Legacy Initiative. This bold, homegrown reforestation campaign has come to define Ethiopia’s environmental awakening. Launched in 2019 and timed with the country’s rainy season from June to August, the program is about far more than planting trees; it represents a fundamental shift in Ethiopia’s relationship with nature. Millions of citizens across all ethnic regions, young and old alike, have mobilized nationwide, transforming reforestation into both a civic duty and a patriotic act. This initiative showcases Abiy’s unique ability to unite the nation behind grand projects where previous leaders fell short.

This year marks the seventh consecutive planting season, during which over 7.5 billion trees have been planted, breaking national and global records alike. Beyond the impressive numbers, the initiative is already yielding tangible results. Satellite imagery and ecological assessments reveal a marked increase in Ethiopia’s forest cover from just under 15% in 2018 to an estimated 17 to 18% by mid-2025.

Once-barren hillsides are greening, watersheds are recovering, and rural communities are already reaping environmental and economic benefits of restored ecosystems. Through this initiative, Ethiopia’s agency in the global climate conversation is more noticeable, demonstrating that African nations need not wait for handouts or unfulfilled climate finance pledges to act. They can lead, innovate, and heal their own lands.

Joining BRICS for Global Influence

In August 2023, at the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, Ethiopia was formally invited to join the bloc as one of only six countries selected in its historic expansion. For a nation long viewed as aid-dependent, this invitation affirmed Ethiopia’s economic promise and rising geopolitical stature under Abiy’s leadership. This was a clear recognition by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa of Ethiopia’s bold trajectory marked by rapid industrialization, strategic diplomacy, and an increasingly assertive regional role.

The invitation reflected more than geopolitical symbolism. It acknowledged the tangible results of Abiy’s ambitious development vision, including Ethiopia’s fast-growing economy projected to nearly double in GDP—from $117.46 billion today to $232.82 billion by 2030—fuelling one of Africa’s youngest and fastest-expanding populations, expected to reach 150 million. This demographic and economic dynamism positions Ethiopia as a continental powerhouse and a critical voice in shaping Africa’s future.

Membership in BRICS grants Ethiopia a direct voice in shaping the evolving architecture of global power, where emerging economies aim to redefine international norms, development paradigms, and economic cooperation. It also opens pathways for expanded trade, investment, and infrastructure partnerships that could accelerate Ethiopia’s development ambitions.

But beyond the numbers, Ethiopia’s role as host of the African Union headquarters and diplomatic capital of Africa has grown. Green development and sustainable growth initiatives have aligned the country with global climate priorities, enhancing its reputation as a forward-looking actor on the world stage. Additionally, Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s leading continental carrier is already benefiting from expanded connectivity among BRICS members, fueling trade, tourism, and infrastructure partnerships vital to the bloc’s shared prosperity.

Cementing a National Legacy Through Adwa Museum

Among Abiy’s most notable symbolic achievements is establishing Adwa Museum to commemorate Ethiopia’s historic 1896 victory over Italian colonial forces. More than a tribute, the museum reaffirms Ethiopia’s civilizational continuity, resilience, and enduring legacy of resistance against colonial domination

. This identity lies at the heart of Ethiopian national pride and resonates broadly across the global Black community as a symbol of anti-colonial triumph. Adwa Museum is especially significant amid Ethiopia’s contemporary challenges, where identity politics and ethnic divisions increasingly strain the nation’s social fabric. The Museum is now a unifying anchor, reminding Ethiopians of a collective triumph that transcends ethnic lines. It has also become a key educational site, fostering awareness among youth and providing space for national reflection and dialogue, and overall, countering fracturing forces and reinforcing a narrative of national unity rooted in courage, sovereignty, and mutual respect.

The museum also addresses critics who question Abiy’s commitment to Ethiopia’s historical icons, particularly given tensions related to his Oromo heritage. Rather than respond with divisive rhetoric, Abiy chose to speak through vision and symbolism, unveiling a monument to collective memory that declares Ethiopia’s future can only be built on shared pride, mutual respect, and a rejection of selective grievance.

The museum fits squarely within a critical broader agenda of reconciliation and nation-building, complementing efforts to bridge ethnic divides and foster unity. Adwa Museum also revives the spirit of Pan-Africanism. Its grand Pan-African Hall celebrates shared heritage across the continent, while a multipurpose hall designed to host African Union events, further solidifies Ethiopia’s role as a cultural and political leader in Africa. Since its opening, the museum has hosted key national and continental ceremonies, reinforcing its role as a living symbol of unity and pride.

Reimagining Addis Ababa to Reflect Its Name: “New Flower”

Addis Ababa, long a mirror of Ethiopia’s potential and challenges, has undergone a bold transformation under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. Once burdened by urban neglect and the reputation of being a city of dirt and disorder, the capital now embodies Africa’s diplomatic hub status and Abiy’s vision for a modern, inclusive urban future.

Places such as Aware and Piassa have been modernized with functional, aesthetic apartment blocks that prioritize the dignity of residents. Public housing projects, road upgrades, and sanitation initiatives are reshaping the city’s landscape. The Addis Ababa River Corridor, once a neglected drybed, has been revitalized into a vibrant greenbelt featuring walkways, bridges, and civic spaces. Parks, public toilets, and sports centers now serve ordinary residents—not just elites—ensuring equitable access to quality urban amenities.

Beyond the city center, new water systems and recreational facilities are expanding access to clean water and green spaces, fostering community cohesion and enhancing residents’ quality of life. This wave of urban modernization reflects a broader nation-building agenda that places the lived experience of Ethiopians at the heart of development—how they live, move, and find meaning within their cities.

These developments are already yielding economic impacts. For example, Friendship Park today attracts around 1,000 visitors daily, over half of whom are tourists, boosting local commerce and tourism. In 2022 alone, public recreational spaces in Addis Ababa generated approximately $400,000, signaling the sustainable economic benefits of investing in urban renewal. Thus, through these modernization efforts, Ethiopia’s capital is not just being beautified, but also transforming into a symbol of national pride, economic vitality, and inclusive progress—true to its name, “New Flower.”

Economic Liberalization: Strategic Market Shift

For decades, Ethiopia’s economy operated under a tightly controlled, state-dominated model marked by ideological caution and risk aversion and rooted in a developmental state approach that prioritized control over competition and remained insulated from global financial flows. However, the economy has since undergone a bold recalibration under Abiy Ahmed’s administration—not as surrender to global capital, but as a strategic opening aimed at strengthening Ethiopia’s economic resilience and competitiveness.

A landmark move was the establishment of Ethiopia’s national stock exchange in 2024, which by the end of its first year had listed 25 companies and raised over $500 million in capital. This marked a clear shift from command economics toward a market-oriented future, creating new avenues for capital formation and private sector growth. Complementing this was the cautious liberalization of Ethiopia’s previously closed financial sector, permitting foreign banks to enter.

For decades, international lenders were barred, so lifting this barrier reflects confidence that Ethiopia can engage global finance on its own terms while safeguarding national interests. Equally significant was lifting the longstanding ban on foreign property ownership. Historically, land and property rights were reserved exclusively for Ethiopian nationals—a policy rooted in sovereignty concerns. Today, foreign investors can legally own property, positioning Ethiopia as an attractive frontier for global investment.

These reforms carry risks, including erosion of national sovereignty, increased inequality, and displacement. These are common pitfalls for African economies that liberalize too rapidly without adequate safeguards. Many countries have lost control over strategic assets and undermined domestic businesses by opening markets prematurely when they have no strong local industries to compete.

China’s model of sequencing reforms deliberately, establishing robust manufacturing and industrial capacity before fully embracing foreign investment provides valuable lessons for Ethiopia. The current administration needs to ensure state-owned enterprises and homegrown businesses are protected, especially in sectors like banking and aviation. Foreign competition must not be left to crowd out local firms and jobs for locals must not be jeopardized by balancing openness to global capital and expertise with strong regulatory frameworks and support for domestic industries.

Reclaiming Ethiopia’s Food Sovereignty

Among Abiy Ahmed’s most ambitious pillars is the drive for food self-sufficiency, a critical priority as wealthier nations themselves reconsider food sovereignty amid global uncertainty. Ethiopia has boldly embarked on reducing its dependency on food imports to reclaim its agricultural future, with the wheat revolution standing out as a flagship success. Once one of Africa’s largest wheat importers and highly vulnerable to global market volatility, Ethiopia today has seen expanded irrigated wheat farming, particularly in the Afar and Oromia regions.

Millions of hectares previously deemed unproductive are now cultivated through mechanization and innovative water management techniques. This transformation has propelled wheat production to record levels, enabling Ethiopia not only to meet its domestic demand but also to export surplus wheat to neighboring countries, including Kenya and Djibouti. According to TRT Global, wheat production rose from 15.1 million tons in 2022/23 to an estimated 23 million tons in 2023/24—an extraordinary leap in just one year.

Nevertheless, Ethiopia’s adoption of genetically modified (GM) insect-protected maize and cotton varieties raises legitimate concerns that one hopes Abiy’s administration is addressing. For example, the National Variety Release Committee’s decision to loosen biosafety regulations—including approval of MON 810 maize hybrids and Bt-GT cotton designed to withstand pests—has drawn scrutiny, especially given stricter restrictions in regions like Europe.

While some GM crops are vital tools for boosting yields and climate resilience, their long-term environmental and health implications must be carefully mitigated. Overall, concerns about land tenure, environmental impact, and sustainability merit ongoing engagement and management but do not diminish the scale and significance of Ethiopia’s agricultural progress.

Conclusion

Abiy Ahmed is one of the most criticized and closely scrutinized leaders in the world today. That alone reflects the disruptive force of his leadership in re-founding Ethiopia from its fractured core. Much of the criticism he faces is premature, some of it contradictory, some calibrated for media spectacle. Yet to overlook his strategic defiance since 2018, his relentless drive to transform Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa amid immense internal and external pressures, is to miss one of contemporary Africa’s most consequential political experiments in Pan-African statecraft.

Whether history will ultimately vindicate or indict his leadership remains to be seen, but nobody can dispute that Abiy Ahmed has reclaimed Ethiopia’s historic place in the comity of Nations, and profoundly altered Ethiopia’s development trajectory in ways that neither supporters nor detractors can overlook. Simply put, love or hate Abiy Ahmed, you can’t ignore his work.

******

SOURCE: connect2africa

Mahlet Ayele Beyecha | Independent Pan-African researcher. She holds a research Master’s degree in African Studies from Leiden University in the Netherlands and a Master’s degree in Middle Eastern Studies from Ben Gurion University in Israel.