Mapping Uganda’s climate future

Why climate vulnerability data could be the  compass for country’s resilient food system

Entebbe, Uganda | RONALD MUSOKE | On a breezy October 22 morning in Entebbe, a mix of scientists, policymakers, and agricultural experts gathered in a lakeside resort conference room with a shared sense of urgency.

Maps glowed on a projector screen, showing Uganda’s farming heartlands, once lush and predictable, but now shaded in reds and oranges that spelled risk. These weren’t just weather charts; they were mirrors of a country’s food system under pressure.

For two days, from October 22–23, the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) and research partner Mathematica Global convened a validation workshop on climate vulnerability mapping and climate change risk analysis. It was a mouthful of technical terms, but behind it lay a simple question: How can Uganda feed itself in a changing climate?

A map for an uncertain future

Across sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is reshaping agriculture—upending planting calendars, intensifying droughts and floods, and threatening smallholder farmers who depend on rain-fed fields. Uganda, where agriculture remains the backbone of the economy and sustains more than 70% of households, is feeling the strain.

AGRA’s new study, implemented through its Sustainable Agriculture and Resilience Unit, is part of a five-country initiative covering Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Ghana  and Zambia. The project, supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, aims to provide evidence-based insights into how vulnerable different farming areas and crops are to climate shocks—by mapping exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

As David Wozemba, AGRA’s Country Director for Uganda, put it during the workshop: “Our role is to provide the right evidence of where those risks exist, and how actors within the same system can build adaptive capacity to solve issues that are holding back agricultural transformation.”

For Wozemba, vulnerability mapping is not just about data; it’s about breaking down barriers that keep Uganda’s food systems from moving forward. “We play a catalytic role,” he said. “We convene actors, provide information, and initiate ideas that help the ecosystem– from government and private sector to academia and farmers– work together.”

From data to decision-making

Uganda’s agriculture is built around staples—maize, beans, and cassava—that not only fill plates but also drive rural incomes. These were the crops chosen for the vulnerability study because, as Wozemba explained, they reflect both the country’s food security and its economic lifeblood.

“You will never go into a household and fail to find people consuming maize, beans, or cassava,” he said. “If they are impacted, that means 80% of the households will start to struggle and suffer.”

The analysis examined how these crops, and the farming systems they thrive in, are being stressed by rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and degraded soils. But perhaps the most crucial part of AGRA’s effort is not the maps themselves; it’s what comes next. “Without proper assessment, we don’t know what’s broken within the system,” Wozemba said. “Data has to be transformed into tools that decision-makers can use. That’s how you influence change where it’s needed.”

Science meets policy

At the heart of the Entebbe workshop was “validation of the study”—an exercise in testing whether the maps and models reflect the realities farmers face on the ground. Among the participants was Dr. Paul Mwambu,  the Commissioner for Crop Inspection and Certification at the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF). For him, the project couldn’t have come at a better time.

“From the onset, I wish to affirm my belief that climate vulnerability mapping and climate change risk analysis are among the most strategic tools for guiding adaptation interventions and investments,” he said. “They are crucial in addressing the persistent impacts of climate change.”

Mwambu’s department regulates seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides—the foundation of Uganda’s crop production. He sees vulnerability mapping as a “powerful, evidence-based compass” for steering limited resources toward the areas and crops most at risk. “Climate vulnerability mapping is not an abstract exercise,” he said. “It helps us allocate scarce resources responsibly and identify practical interventions that protect yields, incomes, and livelihoods.”

In his view, this kind of mapping can reshape everything from inspection routines to how the government plans seed distribution and crop insurance. He hopes the visual dashboards being developed by AGRA and Mathematica will be easy to interpret—“decision-ready tools,” as he called them—usable not only by national planners but also by district agricultural extension officers who work directly with the farmers.

“Our national response must be rooted in science and local knowledge co-creation,” Mwambu emphasized. “We must blend high-resolution data with on-the-ground insights from farmers, agribusinesses, and extension workers. That ensures tools reflect realities and remain relevant.”

A lens on gender and inclusion

For Ruth Nsibirano, a scholar from Makerere University’s Institute of Gender and Development Studies, the workshop opened a new window into what “vulnerability” really means.

“I’ve been looking at vulnerability from the social side—how individuals or communities are affected by climate change,” she told The Independent on the sidelines of the workshop. “But now I understand that we can also look at it scientifically—how we collect data, how frameworks can inform policy, and how that information can be used to improve results.”

Nsibirano pointed out that while farmers might not directly interpret maps showing “wind speed” or “wetness indices,” the data can inform better strategies for adaptation. “It’s about translating statistics into actions that make sense for farmers,” she said. “When policymakers and practitioners understand this data, they can design strategies that truly reach those on the frontlines. Her reflections underscored one of the key messages from the workshop: that resilience is not just technical—it’s social. Climate data must speak to farmers’ lived experiences, and that requires inclusive engagement.

From refugee settlements to fields of hope

Among those who know this firsthand is Mary Immaculate Awor, a Climate Innovation Advisor at CARE International in Uganda. Her work focuses on smallholder farmers, particularly in refugee-hosting communities, where resources are stretched and climate shocks hit hardest.

“Understanding climate vulnerability is critical for us,” she told The Independent on the opening of the workshop.  “We support small-scale farmers working on limited plots of land. Knowing the key vulnerabilities and their implications helps us guide these farmers to enhance their food production.”

For organizations like CARE, the new mapping provides clarity—where to prioritize interventions, what crops are most at risk, and how to design training programmes that fit local realities. “It’s very timely,” Awor said. “This knowledge helps us support farmers to adapt in ways that are practical and sustainable.”

Turning complexity into clarity

While the workshop buzzed with policy debate and scientific presentations, Dan Bunter, a Senior Consultant at EDI Global (a Mathematica subsidiary), had a simpler mission: to make the science understandable.

“Understanding climate data can be tricky,” Bunter admitted. “So we’re trying to develop models and visuals that are easy to comprehend, no matter your technical expertise.” He explained that their approach follows the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) framework—vulnerability as a function of exposure multiplied by sensitivity equals adaptive capacity

“Exposure,” he said, “is the likelihood of experiencing climate risks like drought or floods.” Sensitivity measures how severely communities or crops are affected, while adaptive capacity reflects how well the communities can cope—through infrastructure, resources, or knowledge.

The result is a series of interactive climate vulnerability maps—colour-coded heat maps that show, for instance, how maize-growing areas in central Uganda compare to cassava belts in the north. Scores closer to 1 indicate higher vulnerability; those nearer 0, greater resilience.

“Uganda shows moderate exposure nationwide,” Bunter noted, “but very high sensitivity in key areas, meaning the crops and soils there are particularly affected by droughts or floods.”

He added that their data stretches from 1980 to 2050, offering a time-lapse of risk evolution. “We’re seeing more consecutive dry days, higher mean temperatures, and shifting rainfall patterns. That makes sensitivity a real concern.”

A tool for everyone

For AGRA’s Dr. Jeremiah Rugito (PhD), a soil health and climate specialist, the mapping project is not just a research exercise—it’s a foundation for action.

“This programme really seeks to support governments, private sector players, and farmers to adapt to the climate crisis,” Rugito said. “By understanding vulnerabilities and risk areas, we can help everyone make better, informed choices.”

He described the Entebbe workshop as a critical step in “domesticating” the data—ensuring that Ugandan institutions take ownership. “After this validation, we’ll fine-tune the tool and work closely with government, farmers, financial institutions, and private sector actors to use it in planning and investment decisions,” he said.

Rugito is optimistic that the tool could become a “game changer” in Uganda’s agricultural ecosystem, especially if it informs everything from when to plant and harvest to how to finance climate-smart practices.

“We’re seeing heat stresses, changing rainfall patterns, and new hotspots emerging,” he warned. “If we don’t prepare now, these stresses will intensify. But if we act on this evidence, we can adapt and avert crisis.”

Bridging science and local wisdom

Throughout the workshop, a recurring theme was the need to merge scientific modelling with local experience.  He urged participants to validate the data against their lived realities. “Test these findings against your own experiences across Uganda’s agro-ecological zones,” he said. “Let’s translate complex data into clarity.”

That translation, many agreed, will depend on extension workers—the bridge between research and rural life. As Bunter put it: “Extension services are critical stakeholders. They’re the ones who take new technologies and ideas to the local level. They must access and understand this data.”

Policy gaps and opportunities

The discussions also exposed policy gaps—areas where Uganda’s adaptation frameworks need fine-tuning. Wozemba noted that vulnerability mapping is helping identify what has changed over recent years and what must be done next.

“It gives us evidence that these changes are real and already with us,” he said. “We’ll go back and reflect on what our mitigation plans look like. Do we have them? Are they enough? If not, this mapping helps us design mechanisms to fix those gaps.”

The maps, in essence, are not ends in themselves—they are decision-support tools. Once validated, AGRA and Mathematica plan to disseminate them through policy briefs, interactive dashboards, and technical reports. The aim is to ensure that every relevant actor—from ministries to farmer cooperatives—has access to data they can use.

At its core, climate vulnerability mapping is about people—the farmers whose maize wilts in unexpected dry spells, the women who must walk farther for water, the traders whose incomes shrink when yields fall.

“Our farmers are the heart of Uganda’s agriculture,” Mwambu reminded the group. “Their hands touch the soil, producing food that sustains the nation. They are also stewards of the natural resources future generations will depend on.”

He called for inclusive engagement, ensuring smallholders, women, and youth have a voice in shaping adaptation strategies. “When people have ownership,” he said, “mitigation measures become more effective and sustainable.”

From maps to movement

As the workshop wrapped up, participants were united by a sense of purpose: the maps are only as good as the action they inspire. For AGRA, the next step is to refine and localize the analysis, embedding it in national planning processes like Uganda’s Agro-Industrialisation Agenda under the Uganda’s National Development Plan IV.

Wozemba believes that is where real change will happen. “In order for us to develop agriculture,” he said, “we must transform the value chains that drive agro-industrialisation—from production to consumption. But climate change creates strategic bottlenecks. Our task is to understand those vulnerabilities and build adaptive capacity to overcome them.”

The data-driven approach, he argued, will help Uganda prioritize investments where they matter most—whether that’s promoting drought-tolerant crop varieties, strengthening irrigation systems, or improving access to climate information.

The bigger picture

Uganda’s story is part of a continental effort to future-proof Africa’s food systems. Across the five AGRA-supported countries, vulnerability mapping is yielding a wealth of data that could shape policies for decades. For Uganda, it offers a rare opportunity to align science, policy, and practice before climate shocks become even more disruptive. “We’re not doing this by coincidence,” Wozemba reflected. “It’s by appreciation of the need to have the right sets of data to make the right decisions.”