Military spending rising in EA region

Experts say that could lead to coups

ANALYSIS | THE INDEPENDENT | Governments that allocate substantial resources to the military can inadvertently increase the political power of the military.

“This will in turn lower both civilian control and oversight and increase the risk of an unconstitutional change of government (coups),”says Nan Tian, a Senior Researcher and Acting Programme Director, Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

“The end effect might be country cases like Burkina Faso and Mali with growing state repression and human rights violations,” he adds. SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament based in Sweden.

Nan Tian made his views known on July 17 in an essay entitled ‘Military spending in DRC and South Sudan rose fastest in the world: society ends up paying the price’. It was published in the online journal, The Conversation.

Nan Tian’s work involves assessing and analysing trends in the global arms industry, the causes and impact of civil conflict and the inter-links between conflict and military spending.

Nan has a PhD in Economics, from the University of Cape Town, South Africa, and his doctoral thesis is titled ‘Military Spending, Conflict and Development’ and explores the relationship between military spending, civil conflict and economic development.

He is also the joint author of ` Military Spending and Economic Growth: A Survey, Economics of Peace and Security’, ` Towards Demilitarisation? The Military Expenditure-Development Nexus Revisited’ and more.

His essay in The Conversation did not focus on Uganda, but the SIPRI report he cited shows that Uganda’s military expenditure rose by 5.6% between 2022 and 2023. It reports that Uganda’s military expenditure rose from US$925 million in 2022 to US$977 in 2023.

The rise in Uganda’s military spending backs a trend of rising spending on the military across the world driven by the Russia–Ukraine war and wider geopolitical tensions. Governments allocated an average of 6.9 per cent of their budgets to the military or $306 per person,” according to the SIPRI report.

The SIPRI Year book is an annual publication known worldwide as an authoritative and independent source for politicians, diplomats, journalists, scholars, students and citizens on armaments, disarmament and international security.

SIPRI says it provides an overview of developments in international security, weapons and technology, military expenditure, the arms trade and arms production, and armed conflicts, along with efforts to control conventional, nuclear, chemical and biological weapons

The 2024 edition says estimated military spending increased across all five geographical regions of the world for the first time since 2009. Spending by countries in Africa rose the most (by 22 per cent in 2023), while the smallest increase was in the Americas (2.2 per cent).

According to SIPRI with major armed conflicts raging in Gaza, Myanmar, Sudan and Ukraine; global military spending rose for the ninth successive year to its highest ever level.

Global military spending reached US$2.4 trillion in 2023, a 6.8% increase on 2022 and was dominated by the United States and China, with 49% of total spending between them.

SIPRI also identified 170 states as importers of major arms in 2019–23. The five largest arms importers were India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Ukraine and Pakistan, which together accounted for 35 per cent of total arms imports. The region that received the largest volumes of major arms in 2019–23 was Asia and Oceania, accounting for 37 per cent of the total, followed by the Middle East (30 per cent), Europe (21 per cent), the Americas (5.7 per cent) and Africa (4.3 per cent).

Although the number of states experiencing armed conflicts fell from 55 in 2022 to 52 in 2023, the estimated number of conflict related fatalities worldwide rose from 153, 100 in 2022 to 170, and 700 in 2023, to reach the highest level since 2019.

One of the key features of armed conflicts in recent years has been the rapid global growth of private military and security companies (PMSCs) in armed conflicts, including the Wagner Group, a prominent Russian PMSC with clear links to the Russian government.

Regional expenditure

Africa’s military expenditure is comparatively low and in 2023, African countries spent a total of US$51.6 billion, accounting for 2.1% of the world total. Still, this figure was a huge jump of 22% from the previous year.

Significantly, two countries in Africa – the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and South Sudan – registered the highest year-on-year increases in the world.

The DRC’s military spending had the highest increase in the world in 2023. Its US$794 million spending was 105% higher than in 2022. South Sudan had the second highest increase. Following a 108% increase in 2022, military spending rose by another 78% in 2023, reaching US$1.1 billion. Kenya’s military expenditure rose by 15%, Rwanda 1.3%, and Tanzania 8.7%.

The growth in spending is also reflected in overall government budget priorities. The average military spending as a share of government expenditure by African countries increased from 6.6% in 2022 to 7.2% in 2023, a rise of 0.6 percentage points.

The huge 2023 jump was again mainly driven by two countries ravaged by internal conflict – the DRC and South Sudan – and Algeria, which is experiencing a fossil fuel export boom. Together, their increases accounted for 87% of the overall rise in Africa’s spending.

According to SIPRI, Sub Saharan Africa remained the region with the most armed conflicts, although many were low intensity conflicts. They involved fewer than 1000 conflict related fatalities and levels of violence fluctuated considerably.

Uganda’s neighbours in the east and horn of Africa region; DR Congo, South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia are among countries listed to be experiencing high intensity armed conflict. The others are Nigeria and Burkina Faso in West Africa.

Nan Tian, the SIPRI Researcher and Acting Programme Director, says the increase in the DRC’s military spending coincides with growing tensions between the country and its neighbour, Rwanda, and clashes over territory and natural resources involving the DRC armed forces and militia groups such as the 23 March Movement (M23).

He says, for example, in 2023 the DRC procured Chinese unmanned drones to combat the M23 in the east of the country. The spending also reflects the country’s plan to enhance military capabilities following its request for the UN’s DRC mission, Monusco, to leave, he says in an article in the online journal, The Conversation.

South Sudan’s growth figures relate to the escalation of violence in the Abyei region over oil rights and land infringements and the security crisis in neighbouring Sudan. In 2023, clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan led millions of refugees to flee to South Sudan and added to regional security challenges.

In contrast to the DRC, the ongoing UN arms embargo meant that the increase in South Sudan’s spending went mostly to personnel expenditure. It is bolstering its military presence near the Sudanese border.

The trade off

Nan Tian’s essay in The Conversation says that the increase in military spending by the DRC and South Sudan in 2023 comes at an important time. Both countries need to address growing insecurity, but there is a trade-off with scarce resources needed for critical societal issues.

The DRC (180th) and South Sudan (192nd) both rank low on the United Nations Human Development Index of 193 countries. The index, which takes in education and health outcomes as well as gross national income, provides an overview of a country’s development status. Given their low Human Development Index rankings, investment in health, education and economic growth is essential to improving development outcomes.

“An extra dollar spent on the military potentially crowds out spending for human development,” he says.

According to him, what’s more, the DRC hosted 7.1 million displaced people in 2023, making it the African country with the second highest number of displaced people, after Sudan. South Sudan currently hosts 4.6 million displaced people, the highest percentage of displaced people in its total population in Africa. Both countries need substantial financial resources to support these displaced populations.

Nan Tian, whose interests include the causes and impact of civil conflict and the links between conflict and military spending, says higher military expenditures can divert resources away from essential socio-economic areas such as education, healthcare and infrastructure.

“This may hinder efforts to improve living standards, reduce poverty and promote human development. That, in turn, can feed a cycle of instability and insecurity in a country or region,” he says.

Nan Tian, whose current work includes assessing the demand and consequences of military spending and issues related to transparency and budgeting for military-related matters, recognizes that investments in the defence sector are necessary for national security and internal stability.

He says they can also help create job opportunities which can contribute to economic growth and development.

“However, military spending has been found to create fewer jobs than the same amount of money would have if invested in sectors such as clean energy or education,” he says.

Nan Tian says although the military has the crucial role of ensuring national security and internal stability, the upward military spending trends have implications that should not be overlooked.

In addition to the trade-off effects between military and socio-economic development, governments that allocate substantial resources to the military can inadvertently increase the political power of the military.

“This will in turn lower both civilian control and oversight and increase the risk of an unconstitutional change of government (coups),” he says, “The end effect might be country cases like Burkina Faso and Mali with growing state repression and human rights violations.”

Uganda’s expenditure

The SIPRI data does not provide details of Uganda’s expenditure. Crucially, the SIPRI Year Book 2024 carries data ending 2023. But under the category of arms transfers, which details the import and exports of arms and equipment, it shows Uganda’s biggest import in the last three years to be 41 BMP-2 IFVs from the Czech Republic. Others include 31 t-55 tanks, a Skyvan light transport aircraft, and Spear self-propelled artillery units from Israel.

Under Uganda’s amended public finance management laws, the military expenditure is now grouped under the Governance and Security Programme (GSP) for budgeting purposes. The GSP integrates cross-cutting issues like upholding rights, ensuring access to justice for all, entrenching democratic governance, promoting accountability, and reducing the existence of internal and external security threats. The GSP sector was allocated Shs7.4 trillion the second biggest sector allocation afternoon-wage recurrent expenditure.

The bulk of this budget, Shs5 trillion (68%) was for security, with the Ministry of Defence receiving 3.9 trillion. The priorities for expenditure are retirement of the pension backlog, salary enhancement for personnel in line with the Presidential Directive, expansion of barracks, office and other housing Infrastructure, and recruitment and training. Police Shs825 billion, and prisons Shs321 billion.

Uganda has recently not been engaged in any major military venture. Running major programmes include `Operation Shujaa’; a joint military mission operation between Uganda and DR Congo, which was launched in 2021 to fight a common enemy, the Uganda armed rebel group called the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Uganda has also been involved in various programmes to pacify Somalia under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). It is, therefore not clear why Uganda military expenditure budget, most of which is classified, continues to balloon.

The deployment of advanced military technology and equipment bolstered joint M23-Rwandan military operations. They’ve altered the conflict dynamics, partly by grounding all DRC military air assets – including attack and transport helicopters and transport planes.

However, the recently released `Final report of the Group of Experts on the Democratic Republic of the Congo’ describes a highly combustible regional military situation which Uganda is perhaps wary of.

According to Anthoni van Nieuwkerk, professor of International and Diplomacy Studies at the Thabo Mbeki African School of Public and International Affairs who is an expert on African security issues, the UN report describes in great detail the emergence of new forms of warfare.

He says the report reports on deployment and use of mobile short-range air defence systems, drone-borne mortar shells and guided mortar shells of Israeli manufacture. It says 120mm mortars were used against Southern African Development Community (SADC) troops.

He also describes a rapidly escalating M23 crisis that carries the risk of triggering a wider regional conflict.

According to the report, heavy fighting continued between M23, alongside the Rwandan military; against the Congolese military and the Wazalendo coalition, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda and Burundi National Defence Force troops.

Private military companies and SADC troops, which were deployed in December 2023, provided operational and military support to the DRC military.

Rwandan military interventions and operations in territories north of Goma extended beyond support for M23 operations. This allowed the Rwandans and M23 to achieve military dominance in North Kivu and rapid territorial expansion to the shores of Lake Edward.

The engagement of the Burundian military in operations against M23 and the Rwandans exacerbated the tensions between Rwanda and Burundi.

“Regional leaders from Angola, South Africa, Kenya and Tanzania need to exert maximum influence on the Congolese and Rwandan leaders to pursue the path to peace,” he says in an essay in the online journal The Conversation. The essay is entitled `DRC conflict risks spreading: African leaders must push for solutions beyond military intervention’.