Succession and instability in Africa

Equatorial Forests and USA/Indian democracy

In contrast are the great equatorial forests exemplified by the Amazon of South America, the Ituri of DR Congo and our own Mabira. While they are also remarkable constants, they are instead based on diversity and ecological tumult. The massive resource opportunities arising from their equatorial location (high rainfall, warm climate, long, and intense daylight) created entities that are intimidating in their existence, size, and complexity.  In function, they are difficult to understand and appreciate. Yet, like the serene coniferous forest, the existence of a tropical forest is equally governed and guaranteed by strict rules and universal adherence thereto.

While the equatorial forest is difficult to physically define, other than by its vastness, its overall existence is strictly governed by brute competition, focus on seizing available opportunities, and maximizing efficiency. Everything, however, is achieved by playing by the rules. For the individual plant, the struggle is to capture a share of key resources for itself; space and light through rapid canopy growth and spread, and soil nutrients through root extension. Survival in this environment, with its enormous resources does not depend on structural conformity, but on seizing even the smallest opportunity and outwitting others.

Thus, while obviously dominant species outgrow the rest, others like figs, rather than establishing on soils, germinate in holes high on the stems of huge trees, grow their canopies to equal heights, tap light, extend their roots to the ground and turn the roots into stems, and eventually dominate their hosts and the spaces they occupied. The climbers, who are late colonisers, forego stem strength to achieve height by climbing on the backs of existing trees. The parasitic species establish on top branches of existing trees. At the same time, in the lower layers of the forest up to the ground, thousands of species of all sizes and physiological adaptions exploit the diverse opportunities, and thrive in their own rights.

In this chaos and grandeur, self-preservation and seizing of opportunity are paramount, and excesses are punished resolutely. If a shaded lower branch no longer contributes to growth and competition, nutrients are withdrawn from it and channelled to vantage shoots and the shaded shoot is left to die off. Inordinate focus on shoot growth at the cost of root development is punished by predisposing the roots to rotting and the plant to toppling with loss of competition. Even overbearing branches are broken by wind with the greedy tree ceding space to competitors.

In the non-limiting equatorial environment, opportunity is available to all, and those that play by the rules thrive in their contexts. Most importantly, success and dominance are attained by excelling and out-competing others, and not by cynical, opportunistic, and toxic suppression of rivals. The sum total is the teeming, highly productive, and ever present, equatorial forest.  The tumult of the equatorial forest has its greatest equal in the democracies of the United States of America and India. Both countries are huge and geographically complex. Their societies are diverse, assertive, and highly dynamic. Their political contestations are high profile constants.

With India’s religious, cultural, wealth, and other diversities, and America’s teeming influx of world peoples, its social complexities and its perpetual and brutal ideological struggles between Democrats and Republicans, one wonders how these countries hold together, prosper, promote the progress, and wellbeing of their citizens and remain stable even in moments of greatest political challenges such as the assassinations of Indira Gandhi and John Kennedy.  No matter the passions on issues, height of emotions, and the chaos of a campaign, elections are always universal and guaranteed opportunities for citizens to freely express themselves and make political choices without let or hindrances. At the end, outcomes are accepted and changes are embraced, allowing for smooth successions, continuity, stability, and predictability.

In both countries, as in equatorial forests, healthy competition is institutionalised. All must play by the rules; opportunities are open and changes fair, institutions and laws do not discriminate, those who utilise the broad opportunities succeed. The price of weakness and failure is paid in equal measure by all. In the end, while much of the drive is selfish; the national, institutional and psychological construct of the two societies transforms this drive into common progress and strength. Hence the greatness of the democratic cultures of the USA and India that is so lacking in Africa.

The flat-topped Acacia Tree and African dictators and strongmen

Uniquely found in Africa are the flat-topped acacia trees that, even when in the same environment, are never a collective but stand out as outstanding individual trees. Other than chance and fate, no ecological analysis tells you why a particular acacia tree grew where it did, survived and blossomed to be the majestic tree that it is. The key feature of this tree is the flatness of its roof, with the branches spread out to minimize energy sapping intra-branch and intra-leaf competitions. Structurally, branches and leaves are also so optimally arranged and so closely knit to allow all elements to tap light- the key resource- and to maximally benefit from this existence and dominance with little internal competition.

As children herding cattle and goats, we used to shelter (find security) from rain under the tight canopies of these trees. Magically, standing under these trees, the tiny apertures in the canopies also allowed us to see actual stars even during the day. Thus, besides majesty, the trees had valuable and marvellous attributes. Yet, the singular dominance of the flat-topped acacia tree and its tight canopy construct has an ominous side to it. Because of the thick canopy, it cuts off light so much that little reaches the ground, thus preventing germination and establishment of its own seeds and those of other plants under it. The acacia tree may even aggressively resist other plants by constantly exuding from its roots toxins (allelochemics) that inhibit germination and growth of other plants.

Thus, the ground under this majestic tree remains largely bare, with virtually no under-growths. Even its own will not germinate, grow and flourish under it, nor will it allow new branches to emerge on lower stems, as any wayward branch growth is brutally curtailed. Only ecologically daring but weak species, with short and highly transitory lives, try to live in this oppressive environment.

At its inevitable end, and regardless of how long it stood, when the majestic and imposing tree suddenly topples due to rotten roots, a storm, or lightning, or it is cut, all that is left is a visual and ecological void. Tragically, in its sudden departure, the majestic acacia tree will have no other to replace it, triggering instead an unplanned, chaotic rush by others to occupy the space it vacated.

With the suppressor gone, weak species that previously barely survived as under-growths now attempt to flourish and impose themselves. Being highly transitory, weak and ineffectual, however, they fail to command and dominate the available space. Dormant seeds of all kinds that were previously shaded or chemically suppressed also rush to germinate and occupy the vacuum, while smart and daring species (“opportunists” or “early colonizers”), whose seeds float in air or are dispersed by wildlife, also quickly arrive to seize the opportunity.  For a very long time, the site of that fallen tree remains in a state of ecological flux and disequilibrium, witnessing unrelenting struggle for dominance and rapid changes in species composition and spatial structures. This brutal and unrelenting struggle goes on with one group succeeding another until dominant plants or members of a dominant species overwhelm the rest to dominate the space vacated by the original acacia tree, and establish a new equilibrium.

With rare luck, the dominant entity could be another acacia tree; but more often than not other species that grew much faster and most aggressively would replace the fallen acacia tree at that spot. In very rare circumstances also, defects in the canopy construction of the dominant acacia tree, or a catastrophic event that causes breakage of a large branch also opens up its canopy, allowing a lucky acacia seed to germinate and establish. If this happens early or long before the demise of the main tree, that dominant acacia tree will have a successor strong enough to ward off competition and grow to replace it in the same spot.

For those who have experienced African dictatorships and strongmen rule, this ecological story requires no further transcription. These rulers share the same history with the lone acacia tree, in defiance of African diversity and the complexity and tumult of their own countries.  In its glory days, an African dictatorship or strongman rule usually stands out as unique, majestic, and highly attractive in intent, deeds and outlook. Unfortunately, it is nearly always base and highly deceptive, with much of its realities couched in propaganda and image building. Internally, such a regime is closely knit but only held together by the leader and not institutions or impartially applied rules. Unquestioned loyalty to the leader is built around sharing of opportunities, resources and benefits, through corruption, cronyism, sectarianism etc., and by use of resources (bribery) and fear (suppression and oppression) to ward off competition. The constant struggle is for self-perpetuation, total dominance, and suppression of all dissent.

Internal dissent, like wayward branch growth, is punished by the cutting off of resources and opportunities, and even incarceration, while external competition is actively and vigorously suppressed. The opposition, like under-growths, are stifled and denied space and resources to flourish, or are actively and toxically fought to ensure that their struggles remain inconsequential. Violent police and security agents are let loose upon the opposition, harsh laws are enacted targeting them, and jail on flimsy reasons, rights abuse and even death become the costs of dissent.

As a consequence, while the regime flourishes, all-embracing and sustainable systems and institutions are not built, alternative leaderships are not developed, and platforms for political stability and smooth leadership succession are not established. Instead, regime cronies continue to bask in the illusion of grandeur, permanence and invincibility until, as inevitably does, the end comes with all its tragic consequences.

When that end comes, the leader or dominant system leaves behind a huge political vacuum. Tragically, without systems and effective controls, that vacuum sucks in all manner of players- daredevils, crooks, spoilers, opportunists and even the lucky. Each of these,  weak in themselves  and, in the absence of a strong state, are incapable of holding a country together.  The result is the chaos that has followed the fall of all African dictators and strongmen (Bokasa, Mobuto, Siad Barre, Gadhafi, Mubarak etc.), and monolithic regimes, such as the communist regimes of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. A country then suffers fratricidal wars that tear it apart (Somalia, Libya), and has to face long and very costly struggle to hold together and piece itself back after conflict. Very rarely do early internal contradictions and power contestations help redirect survival to institutional development and collective action rather than to dependence on an individual and his capacity to hold things together. When this happens, the demise of a dictator or strongman causes only momentary instability, and power is passed on to successive, albeit, weak leaders. Even then, this buys a country time and enables it to move on.  Uniquely, seemingly monolithic leadership and governance systems, such as the Communist leadership in China or the Chama Cha Mapenduzi (CCM) leadership in Tanzania, seem to defy this general dominant-tree rule, with power passing to successive leaders without instability.

Close examination, however, reveals that, in these countries, in spite their apparent situations, the exercise of State power and leadership succession are actually institutionalised. Opportunities and access to resources are not used as instruments of political coercion and suppression, and there are regular and predictable changes of leaders (through 2-Term limit for Tanzania and generational limit for China) that generate hope and allow critical stabilising adjustments to be made with each succession. These situations are certainly poor excuses for apologists of dictatorial or strongman regimes in Africa.

My “Law of Cumulative Error”

Even with the above analysis, some Africans are still wont to reflect on their own situations, and on what they mean in space and time, but remain defiant. In concluding, let me affirm that this is nature’s way from which we humans are not exempt. Let me also add my own third dimension- my “Law of Cumulative Error”- which I coined in my early life in Parliament. By this law, I simply assert that, in politics, the mistakes we make and the failures we suffer do not go away. Instead, they accumulate like sugar on a weighing scale being weighed in the dark. Against a 5kg stone, the first few cups of sugar have virtually no effect on the weighing scale, and a person weighing the sugar has nothing to worry about. As one approaches the 5kg mark, however, a quarter cup or just a few grains of sugar may be sufficient to tip the scale; a quantity that, unfortunately, in darkness, we are unable to know.

In the tragic journey in darkness that is the general fate of African dictators and strongmen, who knows where their countries are and what additional mistakes shall finally tilt the scale? Even just a day earlier, whoever could have told us that, after 27 years of self-deception, October 30, 2014 was Blaise Campaore’s day of reckoning with the people of Burkina Faso?  African dictators must really learn from this and move on.

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Prof. Morris Ogenga-Latigo was the Leader of Opposition in the 8th Parliament of Uganda.

mwolatigo@gmail.com