The DRC-Rwanda peace deal

US-brokered agreement will prolong the conflict, analysts say

NEWS ANALYSIS | IAN KATUSIIME | The peace agreement signed between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda on June 27 in Washington, U.S., has already generated intense debate about what it means for the people of DRC who have endured conflict for decades. The agreement was brokered by the U.S. in return for access to the vast trove of critical minerals in the DRC.

U.S. President Donald Trump has hailed the agreement for the mineral concession it grants the U.S. and also bragged about his diplomatic nous. Analysts say the deal presents Trump, a billionaire businessman, with an early return on investment since he took up interest in the DRC after a proposed minerals-for-security deal mooted by DRC President Felix Tshisekedi. Critics, however, have dubbed it “peace for exploitation.”

The foreign affairs ministers of DRC and Rwanda signed the agreement in the presence of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio said the Rwanda and DRC presidents would soon be in Washington to sign the complete protocol and agreement.

The U.S.-mediated agreement acknowledged the efforts of the Luanda process and the mediation efforts of Qatar. The agreement started a new chapter for the U.S. in a country wrecked by fighting and displacement that has lasted for over 30 years. The agreement in its first provision stipulates that parties shall “ensure respect for territorial integrity and the promotion of peaceful relations.”

It states that the parties “shall not allow any military or other hostile activities against each other on or from their respective territories or provide support for such activities abroad.” If implemented, this could mean that Rwanda will have to cease support for M23, the militia it has been accused of backing for years although the group is not explicitly named as an aggressor in the agreement. Rwanda has repeatedly denied backing M23 which critics say is the source of instability in eastern DRC. According to UN reports, Rwanda has an estimated 4000 troops in DRC.

Activists unhappy

The agreement has not go down well with some Congolese activists who say there cannot be peace without reckoning for the perpetrators.

Denis Mukwege, an activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, said in a statement. “Our fears appear to have been well-founded, as this agreement is not based on the American mediator’s recognition that there is an aggressor state, Rwanda, which defies international law every day with total impunity, and an attacked country, the DRC, which is suffering the full brunt of the harmful effects of cynical geopolitics.”

Mukwege said that while the peace agreement signed appears to be based on respect for territorial integrity and provides for the cessation of hostilities between the DRC and Rwanda, “various provisions show that the seeds of a prolonged conflict have already been planted.”

Mukwege who runs a hospital in eastern DRC and contemplated a run for president said that Tshisekedi’s government has abdicated its responsibility.

“Thus, we can say that by signing this agreement, the Kinshasa regime has abandoned its sovereignty to the forces of aggression and legitimised the occupation and operations of an army that has caused millions of deaths, hundreds of thousands of raped women and the displacement of millions of Congolese, he said.

In January, M23 captured Goma, the largest city in eastern DRC, resulting in displacement and killings. The rebel group has gone on to capture towns like Rubaya known for its coltan wealth. The failure to pin M23 according to some observers was a sign that once again, the people of DRC had been shortchanged while Rwanda which they accuse of belligerence gets an upper hand.

The agreement, however, frequently mentions FDLR, remnants of the army that carried out genocide in Rwanda against the Tutsi, calling for its “neutralisation.” The third provision of the DRC-Rwanda agreement illustrates this through the Joint Security Coordination Mechanism (JSCM) within 30 days of the agreement’s signing.

The JSCM will be governed by an “irreversible and verifiable end to state support for FDLR and associated armed groups, and the total prohibition of all domestic and foreign material and logistical, financial, or other support to the same.” The FDLR has been sheltered in eastern DRC since it fled Rwanda in 1994.

The JSCM provides for “lifting of defensive measures” by Rwanda which is a vague reference to M23. This measure is a continuation of the Angola-led mediation process.

Finalized after three months, the accord also spells out “disengagement, disarmament, and reintegration of non-state armed groups.” This part also paves way for the M23’s integration into the FARDC, the national army of the DRC. This has for long been one of the grievances of the group and a cause for its fighting since 2012.

Analysts say there could be a high cost for ignoring root causes of the conflict in the DRC.

“Despite the diplomatic celebrations, the deal raises questions. While mineral wealth is a driver of the conflict, it is not the root cause of the violence. For decades, violence in the eastern DRC has been fueled by a combination of regional power struggles, historical grievances, poor governance, land and citizenship disputes, and competition for resources,” wrote Mvemba Phezo Dizolele in a commentary for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. think tank.

Dizolele says Rwanda’s support for armed groups like RCD, CNDP in the past and now M23 has caused instability in border regions and inflamed tensions within Kinyarwanda-speaking communities.

“Caught between regional ambitions of Rwanda, which has co-opted them as an extension of its grand vision, and compatriots who question their citizenship and patriotism, Congolese Kinyarwanda-speakers are the biggest losers of the conflict,” he added.

Dizolele also had no kind words for the political elites in Kinshasa. “The DRC’s political landscape is not shaped by ideologies or economic programs, but rather by the interests of self-absorbed career politicians who have lived off the state for years, reinventing themselves to fit the needs of successive regimes.”

He cited former president Joseph Kabila as an example. “The constitution makes him a lifelong senator and an elder statesman. Kabila—who once celebrated the peaceful transfer of power to Tshisekedi as a historic moment after he refused to step down as mandated by the constitution and overstayed his second term for two years—now backs the M23’s grievances, fueling suspicions of his ambitions to reclaim power.”

US mineral deals

The latter part of the agreement dubbed “Regional Integration Framework” has compounded the concerns of Congolese citizens and those advocating for peace in the DRC because of the mineral exploitation in the fine print.

“The Parties shall use this framework to expand foreign trade and investment derived from regional critical mineral supply chains and introduce greater transparency, which shall ensure illicit economic pathways are blocked and both Parties derive greater prosperity—especially for the region’s population—from the region’s natural resources through mutually beneficial partnerships and investment opportunities.”

The agreement also states that DRC and Rwanda shall launch and expand cooperation on shared priorities such as national park management; hydropower development; de-risking of mineral supply chains; joint management of resources in Lake Kivu.

DRC does not control mineral supply chains in its mineral rich region but rather the area is controlled by a host of armed groups who benefit through hefty taxation of the mining. Some of these are proxies of Rwanda and other international actors like the U.S. and China putting the DRC in a pickle. Critics say it is the part of the deal that perpetuates the long cycle of exploitation that Congo has suffered.

DRC has filed criminal complaints against U.S. tech giant Apple in courts in Belgium and France for using “conflict minerals” to manufacture its products. DRC accuses the company of “complicity” in the deaths of millions of Congolese.

The deal is envisaged to bring about formalised end to end “mineral value chains (from mine to processed metal) that link both countries, in partnership, as appropriate, with the U.S. government and U.S. investors.”

Analysts say the new agreement simply creates a deal for the U.S to exploit DRC’s mineral wealth after years of Chinese domination. DRC President Tshisekedi presented the opportunity to Trump when the latter took office in January.

Trump named his in-law Massad Boulos, a businessman with Africa dealings, as his Africa Advisor in April. Balous visited DRC and had meetings with Tshisekedi to hammer out details of what the deal could look like. US investors are now getting set to do business in a country with deep reserves of gold, copper, lithium, cobalt, tantalum—some critical for the global energy transition.

Boulos, who has been key in the negotiations, said DRC and Rwanda will work together on mining where “Rwanda will play a role in the processing aspect,” he told the BBC. Former DRC President Joseph Kabila has called the pact a “trade agreement”.

The concessions granted to Rwanda have sparked anger among the Congolese because of the country’s involvement in the country for decades. “There’s no doubt that they (M23) are supported by Rwanda, that’s why we made the peace accord,” Boulos said.