Why Uganda cannot afford prolonged fuel shortage

Fuel shortage first sign of poor planning and uncoordinated troop movements

COMMENT | Samson Tinka | Since last week, there has been scarcity of fuel across the country. Pump prices are up and many stations ran out of fuel.

The situation became worse upcountry as some districts like Hoima had a litre of petrol going for sh12,000. In Fort Portal, minibuses were seen buying fuel in jerry cans to transport to other districts of Ntoroko, Kamwengye, and to also sell to boda boda riders.

Minister of Energy together with Permanent Secretary Ministry of Finance have since talked about this incident , giving different reasons for the slow inflow of petrol. One fact that cannot however be erased is that there is fuel shortage in the country.

Economy stuck

Fuel is a key economy driver. Most services and goods depend on fuel.

A company like Mukwano Group has more than 150 trucks which ply long routes across the country.  A small shift in a fuel price especially upwards, will increase the cost of goods produced. The dilemma now is not only the hiking of fuel prices but also the unavailability of fuel. This means that Mukwano stores and warehouses are full of goods because trucks are grounded not because of mechanical conditions but lack of fuel. This is a similar scenario at all other manufacturers.

Some hospitals, schools, industries, salons, and other commercial entities especially in the north use generators as the fallback position in cases of interrupted main grid power supply. Northern region especially West Nile has always had unreliable power in terms of supply stability. With no fuel, this region must be stuck completely. This directly means that both the cost of living is now up but also the social services provision very impaired.

Bad timing

COVID-19 has already had its toll on the economy, and just when President Yoweri Museveni opened the economy, a fuel problem has set in.

Transport from Mbarara to Kampala is now between sh30,000 and 40,000 yet its back-to-school time. The parents and guardians were still grappling with school fees, then transport costs come in to mess up the whole equation.

School necessities prices have also gone mad. There is almost an increase of between 20-30% prices of all school necessary requirements like books, blue band and mattresses. The whole situation looks so ugly.

In urban centers and cities, most parents either drop their children to school or use school vans. This fuel drama has impacted on children movement. This is noticeable by number of vehicles on Kampala roads and streets. In the last three or so days, there has been no traffic jam in Kampala because, people have resorted to use of public means. My neighbor received an sms from his school van that until fuel prices are back to normal, they are unable to pick his children. What a mess?

Government officials on this situation.

There has been some explanation from government officials with the recent one being a tweet from Permanent Secretary Finance Ramathan Ggoobi. He attributed this to ministry of health by use of polite words and assuring the public that it’s being handled.

My previous supervisor at Stanbic Bank, Miriam Naigembe Rebbecca, used to remind us in departmental meetings that she is not interested in ‘labor pains but a baby’. What Ugandans want to see is a fair priced fuel not the justification of why there is either expensive fuel or no fuel at all.

Energy Minister Ruth Nakambirwa on NTV Sunday night urged fuel station managers and owners not to sell fuel above sh5000. Really?

Certainly she should be cognizant of the fact that this is a free economy where prices are determined by demand and supply forces. I expected her to say where government has intervened, have all fuel depots full to capacity,  and this would stabilize both fuel prices and availability.

Certainly some patients in areas like Kabongo, Kwen, Amudat and Isingiro are dying not because of lack of medicine, or treatment but because theatres can’t work because of fuel for generators. It’s a hard thing to justify. Its piercing, painful. If you want to know the impact of this fuel shortage, go upcountry.

Government ministries cohesion.

The apparent cause of the fuel shortage is that drivers of trucks at the border are not being tested for COVID-19 fast enough. There is a delay as the drivers are unhappy with the high costs of tests, done hours after similar tests in Kenya.

Whereas MOH can justify why they are implementing these drastic measures, ministry of trade and ministry of finance should have guided them on seamless implementation the COVID-19 testing.

For example, oil tankers can be allowed to test from different inland points. Testing centers can be mounted at Busitema, Iganga and Mabira to avoid congestion and confusion. The short video showing fuel track drivers playing football as merchandise rot in warehouses, patients die in hospitals, school children miss classes makes one wonder if we have the right officials at government decision making bodies.

Vision 2040

It’s doubtful if vision 2040 will be achieved. It’s very visible that government MDAs are working in silos. This fuel matter has made Uganda look ovio.( Swahili word meaning bogus).

Risk assessment.

In a corporate environment, every project is subjected to risk and threat assessment. The reason behind this is to make sure the would be unforeseen issues are picked up during risk assessment. Risk assessments provides for mitigation measures.

The testing of truck drivers at boarder points was not subjected to risk assessment and that’s why the whole country is limping.

I will end this article with this quote ‘the speed of the boss is the speed of the team’ by Lee Loacocca. We now know the speed of the ministry of energy and ministry of health and the earlier the rest of government puts in place measures to deal with this new risk, the better for its citizens.